Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 47.02 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

S&P 500, Russell 2000 Testing Short-Term Support

Ongoing market dynamics remain largely positive and there continues to be an absence of major breakdowns across all Sectors and the major averages. As a result, we expect higher prices ahead and recommend adding exposure on pullbacks.

· S&P 500, Russell 2000. The S&P 500 and Russell 2000 (IWM) have pulled back to short-term support at their prior downtrends -- 3880-3890 on SPX and $222-223 on the IWM. If this level fails to hold on the SPX, the next important support levels come in at 3755 followed by 3723; as long as 3723 holds we are constructive. As for the IWM, if $222 fails to hold we will be watching for critical support at $207-208... see charts below.

· Sector Relative Strength Rankings & Weighting Recommendations. The cyclical value theme remains our primary focus, with the majority of our overweight Sectors (excluding Communications) generally classified under this theme. Additionally, bullish price patterns across the cyclical value Sectors tells us this bull market has more room to run... see pages 2-3.

· Market Dynamics Largely Positive. The list of positive market dynamics remains long; (1) the US dollar (DXY) remains below 92, (2) high yield spreads remain in a downtrend, (3) cyclical Sectors are outperforming relative to defensives, (4) breadth remains healthy, (5) broad commodities (DJP) remain in a 1-year uptrend, and (6) small-caps are outperforming relative to large-caps. Until these metrics start to reverse, it tells us we are in a bullish risk-on environment... see page 4.

· Watching Treasury Yields & Crude Oil. 10- and 30-year Treasury yields are still on an accelerated trajectory which remains one of our primary concerns. Still, growth and Technology are becoming increasingly comfortable with higher yields. To illustrate our point, Technology (XLK) and Russell 1000 Growth (IWF) look healthy and remain well-above the lows from 3/5/21, when yields were lower than they are now. We are also watching WTI crude oil closely, as it recently broke below its steep 4-month uptrend. For now it is just consolidating which we view as healthy... see page 4.
Underlyings
Bed Bath & Beyond Inc.

Bed, Bath & Beyond is an omnichannel retailer providing products, services and solutions for the home and life events. The company operates an ecommerce platform consisting of various websites and applications, including bedbathandbeyond.com, bedbathandbeyond.ca, harmondiscount.com, and facevalues.com. The company sells an assortment of domestics merchandise and home furnishings. Domestics merchandise includes categories such as bed linens and related items, bath items and kitchen textiles. Home furnishings include categories such as kitchen and tabletop items, fine tabletop, basic housewares, general home furnishings (including furniture and wall decor), consumables and certain juvenile products.

Boot Barn Holdings

Boot Barn Holdings is a retail chain focused on western and work-related footwear, apparel and accessories. The company's stores, which are freestanding or located in strip centers, feature an assortment of brands and styles, coupled with store associates. The company's product offering is anchored by a selection of western and work boots and an assortment of coordinating apparel and accessories. The company also carries assortments of denim, western shirts, cowboy hats, belts and belt buckles, western-style jewelry and accessories. The company's work assortment includes footwear, outerwear, overalls, denim and shirts for the physically demanding jobs.

Brookdale Senior Living Inc.

Brookdale Senior Living is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is an operator of senior living communities. The company's Community offerings include: independent living, which is for middle to upper income seniors; assisted living and memory care, which provides housing and assistance to mid-acuity frail and elderly residents; and continuing care retirement, which provides living arrangements and services to accommodate various physical ability and health. Through its Health Care Services segment the company provides home health, hospice and outpatient therapy services, and education and wellness programs, to residents of its communities and to seniors living outside of its communities.

Caleres Inc.

Caleres is a footwear retailer and wholesaler. The company is engaged in the operation of retail shoe stores and e-commerce websites as well as the design, sourcing and marketing of footwear for women, men and children. The company's Famous Footwear segment includes its Famous Footwear stores, which features a selection of athletic, casual and dress shoes for the entire family. The company's Brand Portfolio segment provides retailers and consumers a portfolio of brands by designing, sourcing and marketing footwear for women and men at a variety of price points. The company's Brand Portfolio segment sells footwear on a wholesale basis to retailers as well as through its branded retail stores and e-commerce businesses.

Capital Senior Living

Crocs Inc.

Crocs is engaged in the design, development, marketing, distribution, and sale of casual lifestyle footwear and accessories for men, women, and children. The company provides a variety of footwear products including sandals, flips and slides, which the company collectively refer to as sandals, shoes, and boots. The majority of shoes within the company's collection contains Croslite? material. The company's wholesale channel includes domestic and international multi-brand retailers, e-tailers, and distributors; the company's retail channel consists of company-operated stores; and the company's e-commerce channel includes company-operated e-commerce sites and third-party marketplaces.

Designer Brands Inc. Class A

Designer Brands is a footwear and accessories designer, producer and retailer. The company has three segments: U.S. Retail, which includes stores operated in the U.S. under the DSW Designer Shoe Warehouse banner and its related e-commerce site; Canada Retail, which includes stores operated in Canada under The Shoe Company, Shoe Warehouse, and DSW Designer Shoe Warehouse banners and related e-commerce sites; and Brand Portfolio, which includes sales from wholesale, serving retailers as the design and buying agent for products under private labels, and direct-to-consumer e-commerce sites. The company separates its merchandise into three categories: women's footwear; men's footwear; and accessories and other.

Ensign Group Inc.

Ensign Group is a holding company. Through its operating subsidiaries, the company provides skilled nursing, senior living and rehabilitative services, as well as other ancillary businesses. In transitional and skilled services, the company provides short and long-term nursing care services for patients with chronic conditions, prolonged illness, and the elderly. The company's senior living companies provide residential accommodations, activities, meals, housekeeping and assistance in the activities of daily living to seniors who are independent or who require some support, but not the level of nursing care provided in a skilled nursing operation. The company's other business lines includes of mobile ancillary services.

Haverty Furniture Cos. Inc.

Haverty Furniture Companies is a retailer of residential furniture and accessories. The company carries mattress product lines such as Sealy?, Tempur-Pedic?, Serta?, Stearns & Foster? and Beautyrest Black? in addition to its private label Skye?. The company also provides financing by a third-party finance companies or through an internal revolving charge credit plan. The company operates stores in the Southern and Midwest regions. All of the company's retail locations are operated using the Havertys name and it does not franchise its stores.

Kirkland's Inc.

Kirkland's is a retailer of home decor in the U.S., operating in stores as well as an e-commerce enabled website, www.kirklands.com. The company's stores present a selection of merchandise, including holiday decor, furniture, art, fragrance and accessories, ornamental wall decor, decorative accessories, mirrors, lamps, textiles, artificial floral products, gifts, housewares, outdoor living items, frames and clocks. The company's stores provides assortment of holiday merchandise during seasonal periods as well as items carried throughout the year suitable for gift-giving. The company provides its customers an engaging shopping experience characterized by merchandise selection reflecting existing styles.

NHC Communications, Inc.

Rent-A-Center Inc

Rent-A-Center is a holding company that provides ownership of products, such as consumer electronics, furniture and accessories, under flexible rental purchase agreements with no long-term obligation. The company's Core U.S. segment consists of the company-owned rent-to-own stores that lease household durable goods on a rent-to-own basis. The company's Acceptance Now segment provides the rent-to-own transaction to consumers who do not qualify for financing from the retailer. The company's Mexico segment consists of the company-owned rent-to-own stores in Mexico that lease household durable goods on a rent-to-own basis. The company's Rent-A-Center Franchising International, Inc. subsidiary is a franchisor of rent-to-own stores.

RH
RH

RH is a holding company. Together with its subsidiaries, the company is a retailer in the home furnishings marketplace. The company provides merchandise assortments across a number of categories, including furniture, lighting, textiles, bathware, decor, outdoor and garden, and child and teen furnishings. The company positions its Galleries as showrooms for its brand, while its Source Books and websites act as virtual extensions of its stores. The company's business is integrated across its various channels of distribution, consisting of its stores, Source Books, and websites. The company operates its retail Galleries throughout the U.S. and Canada, and its Waterworks showrooms throughout the U.S. and in the U.K.

Rocky Brands

Rocky Brands is a designer, manufacturer and marketer of footwear and apparel marketed under a portfolio of brand names including Rocky, Georgia Boot, Durango, Lehigh, and the licensed brand Michelin. The company's products are distributed through three business segments: wholesale, retail and military. In its wholesale business, the company distributes its products through a range of distribution channels representing retail store locations. The company's retail business includes direct sales of its products to consumers through its business to business web platform, e-commerce websites and its Rocky outlet store. The company also sells footwear under the Rocky label to the United States military.

Shoe Carnival Inc.

Shoe Carnival is a family footwear retailers. The company provides customers a a range of dress, casual and athletic footwear for men, women and children with an emphasis on national name brands. The company operates stores in the states and Puerto Rico and provides online shopping at www.shoecarnival.com. The company's stores carry complementary accessories such as socks, belts, shoe care items, handbags, sport bags, backpacks, scarves and wallets, while its e-commerce site provides certain handbags, sport bags and backpacks. Women's, men's and children's non-athletic footwear categories are further divided into dress, casual, sport, sandals and boots.

Weyco Group Inc.

Weyco Group is engaged in one line of business: the design and distribution of footwear. The company designs and markets footwear principally for men, but also for women and children, under a portfolio of brand names including: Florsheim, Nunn Bush, Stacy Adams, BOGS, and Rafters. The company's products consist primarily of mid-priced leather dress shoes and casual footwear composed of man-made materials or leather. The company's footwear is available in a range of sizes and widths. In the company's wholesale segment, its products are sold to footwear, department and specialty stores, primarily in the U.S. and Canada. The company's retail segment consisted of brick and mortar retail stores and internet businesses in the U.S.

Williams-Sonoma Inc.

Williams-Sonoma is a retailer of products for the home. The company has two reportable segments, e-commerce and retail. The e-commerce segment has the following merchandise strategies: Williams Sonoma, Pottery Barn, Pottery Barn Kids, West Elm, PBteen, Williams Sonoma Home, Rejuvenation and Mark and Graham, which sell the company's products through its e-commerce websites and direct-mail catalogs. The retail segment, which includes the company's franchise operations, has the following merchandise strategies: Williams Sonoma, Pottery Barn, Pottery Barn Kids, West Elm and Rejuvenation, which sell the company's products through its retail stores.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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