Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 45.90 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Still Bullish, But Also Extended Near-Term

Despite the Nasdaq 100 getting quantitatively extended, the weight of the evidence continues to suggest that our bullish outlook remains appropriate. We elaborate below and also highlight some developments we are watching that could alter our outlook.

· Nasdaq 100 Quantitatively Extended. The last time the Nasdaq 100 was as 30%+ above its 200-day MA (as it is now), the year was 2000. To be clear, this is not bearish in and of itself. History suggests we could get a roughly 8-12% pullback, a much more severe correction, some consolidation to allow for the 200-day MA to catch up, or even that the Nasdaq could get even more extended to the upside (it got nearly 60% above its 200-day MA in 2000). The point is, simply being “extended” is not reason enough to sell or turn bearish for longer-term investors -- particularly when virtually all metrics we look at are consistent with historical equity bull markets.

· Sector Relative Strength Rankings & Weighting Recommendations. Dominated by FAANG stocks, our longest-tenured overweights (Technology, Communications, Consumer Discretionary) are getting extended -- much like the Nasdaq 100. Remain overweight, however we would prefer only to add exposure on pullbacks. On the other hand, the Financial and Energy Sectors have shown some mild RS and/or price deterioration as they test support; breakdowns would damage our overall outlook.

· S&P 500, Russell 2000. Major indexes (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow, Russell 2000) remain in uptrends; as long as these indexes hold above short-term support the momentum will remain in favor of the bulls. Short-term support levels we are watching include 3400 on the S&P 500 and $153 on the IWM ETF (Russell 2000).
Underlyings
BJ's Restaurants Inc.

BJ's Restaurants operates in the casual dining segment of the restaurant industry. The company's restaurants feature a number of menu offerings including: slow roasted entrees, such as, prime rib; EnLIGHTened Entrees? such as its Cherry Chipotle Glazed Salmon; its deep-dish pizza; the Pizookie? dessert; and its BJ's proprietary craft beers. The company owns and operates restaurants located in various states, and its proprietary craft beer is produced at various locations, its Temple, TX brewpub locations and by independent third party brewers using its proprietary recipes. The company also produces its proprietary non-alcoholic craft sodas including root beer, ginger beer, cream, orange and black cherry soda.

Bloomin' Brands Inc.

Bloomin' Brands is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a casual dining restaurant company. The company has four concepts: Outback Steakhouse, which is a casual steakhouse restaurant concept focused on steaks and Australian decor; Carrabba's Italian Grill, which provides Italian cuisine; Bonefish Grill, which focuses on fish, wood-grilled items and cocktails; and Fleming's Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar, which is a steakhouse concept featuring beef, chops, fish, seafood and poultry, salads and side dishes. The company owns and operates restaurants across the U.S., Puerto Rico, Guam and other countries.

Brinker International Inc.

Brinker International is engaged in owning, developing, operating and franchising the Chili's? Grill & Bar (Chili's) and Maggiano's Little Italy? (Maggiano's) restaurant brands. Chili's operates in the bar and grill category of casual dining. Chili's menu includes burgers, fajitas, baby back ribs and margaritas. Chili's To Go menu is available online, by calling the restaurant, or through its mobile app. Maggiano's is a casual restaurant brand providing Italian-American cuisine. Dishes are served in both a la carte and family style. The company provides a range of lunch and dinner options, complimented by a wine list and cocktails.

Carrols Restaurant Group Inc

Carrols Restaurant Group is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged as a Burger King? franchisee. The company owns and operates Burger King restaurants located in Northeastern, Midwestern and Southeastern states. Burger King restaurants feature the flame-broiled Whopper? sandwich, as well as a variety of hamburgers, chicken and other specialty sandwiches, french fries, salads, breakfast items, snacks, soft drinks and other offerings.

Cheesecake Factory Incorporated

The Cheesecake Factory operates casual dining restaurants. The company operates Company-owned restaurants under: The Cheesecake Factory?, which provides menu including appetizers, pizza, seafood, steaks, chicken, burgers, small plates, pastas, salads, sandwiches and omelettes, and gluten-free items; Grand Lux Cafe?, which provides American dishes and international favorites, including appetizers, pasta, seafood, steaks, chicken, burgers, salads, and desserts; and RockSugar Southeast Asian Kitchen?, which showcases the cuisines of Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia and India. The company also produces desserts for its restaurants, international licensees and third-party bakery customers.

Chuy's Holdings Inc.

Chuy's Holdings is a restaurant concept that provides Mexican and Tex Mex inspired food. The company provides the same menu during lunch and dinner, which includes enchiladas, fajitas, rellenos, tacos, burritos, combination platters and daily specials, complemented by a variety of appetizers, soups and salads. Each of the company's restaurants also provide a variety of sauces, including the Hatch Green Chile, Boom-Boom and Creamy Jalapeno sauces. The company also provides a bar in all of its restaurants providing its customers a variety of beverage offerings, featuring a selection of cocktails including its on-the-rocks margaritas made with lime juice and the King's Punch, a rum cocktail.

Community Health Systems Inc.

Community Health Systems is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company operates general acute care hospitals and outpatient facilities. The company provides healthcare services through the hospitals that it owns and operates and affiliated businesses in non-urban and selected urban markets. Services provided through the company's hospitals and affiliated businesses include general acute care, emergency room, general and specialty surgery, critical care, internal medicine, obstetrics, diagnostic, psychiatric and rehabilitation services. The company also provides additional outpatient services at urgent care centers, occupational medicine clinics, imaging centers, cancer centers and ambulatory surgery centers.

Darden Restaurants Inc.

Darden Restaurants is a restaurant company. The company owns and operates restaurants through subsidiaries in the U.S. and Canada under the Olive Garden?, LongHorn Steakhouse?, Cheddar's Scratch Kitchen?, Yard House?, The Capital Grille?, Seasons 52?, Bahama Breeze?, and Eddie V's Prime Seafood? trademarks. The company has four reportable segments: Olive Garden; LongHorn Steakhouse; Fine Dining (which includes The Capital Grille and Eddie V's); and Other Business (which includes Cheddar's Scratch Kitchen, Yard House, Seasons 52, Bahama Breeze and results from its franchise operations).

Del Taco Restaurants Inc.

Del Taco Restaurants is an operator and franchisor of restaurants featuring made-to-order cuisine, including both Mexican inspired and American classic dishes. Majority of the company's Del Taco restaurants are located in the Pacific Southwest. The company serves its customers prepared food with quick service restaurants. The company's menu provides a combination of Mexican-inspired food, such as tacos and burritos, and American classics, such as Double Del cheeseburgers, fries and milkshakes. Additionally, the company's menu features both items such as its Platos plated meals, Epic Burritos?, Handcrafted Ensaladas and Fresca Bowls as well as items on its Buck & Under Menu?.

El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc

El Pollo Loco Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiary, El Pollo Loco, Inc., the company develops, franchises, licenses and operates quick-service restaurants under the name El Pollo Loco ?. The restaurants, which are located principally in California but also in Arizona, Nevada, Texas, Utah and Louisiana, engaged in flame-grilled chicken in a variety of contemporary Mexican-influenced entrees, including chicken burritos, chicken quesadillas, chicken tortilla soup, variations on its Pollo Bowl? and Pollo Salads. The company serves individual and family-sized chicken meals, a variety of Mexican-inspired entrees, and sides, and, on a limited-time basis, additional proteins like shrimp.

Fiesta Restaurant Group Inc.

Fiesta Restaurant Group is a holding company. Through its wholly-owned subsidiaries Pollo Operations, Inc. and its subsidiaries, and Pollo Franchise, Inc., (collectively Pollo Tropical) and Taco Cabana, Inc. and its subsidiaries (collectively Taco Cabana), the company owns, operates and franchises restaurant brands, Pollo Tropical? and Taco Cabana?. The company's Pollo Tropical restaurants provide fire-grilled chicken marinated in a proprietary blend of tropical fruit juices and spices. The company's Taco Cabana restaurants serve Mexican-inspired food, including tacos, flame-grilled USDA Choice steak and chicken fajitas, quesadillas, flautas, enchiladas, burritos, and salads served in its Cabana Bowl?.

HCA Healthcare Inc

HCA Healthcare is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, partnerships and joint ventures, the company owns and operates hospitals and related health care entities. Most of the company's general, acute care hospitals provide medical and surgical services, including inpatient care, intensive care, cardiac care, diagnostic services and emergency services. The general, acute care hospitals also provide outpatient services such as outpatient surgery, laboratory, radiology, respiratory therapy, cardiology and physical therapy. The company's psychiatric hospitals provide therapeutic programs including child, adolescent and adult psychiatric care, adolescent and adult alcohol and drug abuse treatment and counseling.

Papa John's International Inc.

Papa John's International operates and franchises pizza delivery and carryout restaurants and, in certain international markets, dine-in and delivery restaurants. The company has four reportable segments: domestic the company-owned restaurants, which engages in retail sales of pizza and side items; North America commissaries, which includes the operations of the company's regional dough production and product distribution centers; North America franchising, which includes the company's franchise sales and support activities; and international operations, which includes the distribution sales to franchised Papa John's restaurants in the United Kingdom and its franchise sales and support activities.

Select Medical Holdings Corporation

Select Medical Holdings is managed through four business segments: critical illness recovery hospital, which consists of hospitals designed to serve the needs of patients recovering from critical illnesses; rehabilitation hospital, which consists of hospitals designed to serve patients that require intensive physical rehabilitation care; outpatient rehabilitation, which consists of clinics that provide physical, occupational, and speech rehabilitation services; and the company's subsidiary, Concentra Inc. segment, which consists of occupational health centers that provide workers' compensation injury care, physical therapy, and consumer health services and onsite clinics.

Shake Shack Inc. Class A

Shake Shack is a roadside burger stand serving an American menu of burgers, hot dogs, crispy chicken, frozen custard, crinkle cut fries, shakes, beer, wine and others. The company operates and licenses Shake Shack restaurants. The company's menu include: Burgers & Chicken, which includes the SmokeShack?, 'Shroom Burger? (Co.'s vegetarian burger), Shack Stack? and Hamburger, as well as Chick'n Shack?; Crinkle Cut Fries, which are made from Yukon potatoes; Hot Dogs, which includes beef hot dogs and chicken dogs; Frozen Custard, which is made from vanilla and chocolate recipes and milk; Beer, Wine and Beverages, which provides local craft beers; and Dogs Are Welcome Too, which provides dog biscuits.

Surgery Partners Inc.

Surgery Partners is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a healthcare services company. The company operates in three reporting segments : Surgical Facility Services, which consists of the operation of ambulatory surgery centers (ASCs) and surgical hospitals; Ancillary Services, which consists of a diagnostic laboratory and multi-specialty physician practices; and Optical Services, which consists of an optical laboratory and an optical products group purchasing organization. As of Dec 31 2017, the company owned or operated primarily in partnership with physicians, a portfolio of 124 surgical facilities comprised of 106 ASCs and 18 surgical hospitals across 32 states.

Tenet Healthcare Corporation

Tenet Healthcare is a healthcare services company. Through its subsidiaries, partnerships and joint ventures, including USPI Holding Company, Inc., the company operates hospitals, surgical hospitals and outpatient centers. In addition, the company's Conifer Holdings, Inc. (Conifer) subsidiary provides healthcare business process services in the areas of hospital and physician revenue cycle management and care solutions to healthcare systems, as well as individual hospitals, physician practices, self-insured organizations, health plans and other entities. The company has three reportable segments: Hospital Operations and other; Ambulatory Care; and Conifer.

Texas Roadhouse Inc.

Texas Roadhouse is a restaurant company operating predominately in the casual dining segment. The company operates Texas Roadhouse restaurants and Bubba's 33 restaurants. In addition, the company operates restaurants outside of the casual dining segment. The Texas Roadhouse restaurants provide an assortment of steaks hand-cut on the premises and cooked to order over open grills. In addition to steaks, the company also provides its guests a selection of ribs, seafood, chicken, pork chops, pulled pork and vegetable plates, hamburgers, salads and sandwiches. Bubba's 33 is a sports restaurant. The company's menu features burgers, pizza and wings as well as a variety of appetizers, sandwiches and dinner entrees.

Wingstop Inc.

Wingstop is a franchisor and operator of restaurants that focuses on cooked-to-order, hand-sauced and tossed chicken wings. The company provides its guests several flavors on its bone-in and boneless chicken wings and tenders paired with seasoned fries, Ranch, and Bleu Cheese dips. The company's proprietary flavors, which range from extremely hot to mild includes Atomic, Mango Habanero, Cajun, Original Hot, Spicy Korean Q, Louisiana Rub, Mild, Hickory Smoked BBQ, Lemon Pepper, Garlic Parmesan, and Hawaiian. To complement its wings, the company serves seasoned fries, as well as carrots and celery and Ranch and Bleu Cheese Dips made with buttermilk.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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