Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 47.72 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Small-Caps Re-Emerging As Leadership

In last week's Compass we highlighted what we view as compelling signals that risk appetites are improving, which is bullish for the broad market. The trend of improving risk appetites has only continued over the past week and we are moving toward an outright bullish outlook.

Small- & Micro-Caps. Russell Micro-Caps (IWC) and the Russell 2000 (IWM) are making bullish price inflections and RS is forming bullish bases -- shift exposure back to small-caps where possible. Price and RS improvement for small- and micro-caps is a huge positive for the broad market as it is a sign of strengthening risk appetites and it is a signal that breadth is improving. If the IWM can break above (and stay above) $234.50, we would likely shift to an outright bullish stance on the broad market... see charts below.
S&P 500. The S&P 500 remains bullish, coiling just below all-time high resistance at 4238. We expect a breakout which would target 4310. Short-term support to watch is at 4168 followed by the 50-day moving average (currently 4145) and 4056. If the S&P 500 falls below 4056, 3980-3985 would be the next important level to watch and we would be buyers at this level. As long as 3980 holds we are constructive overall... see page 3.
Sector Relative Strength Rankings & Weighting Recommendations. Several cap-weighted Sectors hit new 2021 highs in the past week, including Energy (XLE), Financials (XLF), Real Estate (XLRE), Communications (XLC), and Staples (XLP). As more Sectors break to new highs it will give us more confidence that a new leg higher has commenced for the broad market... see page 2.
Big Picture Trends. WTI crude oil has had some upside follow-through after breaking above $67 resistance last week. Broad commodities (DJP) remain bullish. Emerging market equities (EEM) are holding above $55.35 base support and RS appears to be bottoming. The 10-year Treasury yield continues to consolidate in a horizontal range between 1.5% support and 1.77% resistance. The US dollar (DXY) remains near its lows of 2021. High yield spreads remain subdued and devoid of bullish inflections. These are all bullish signs for the broad market as they signal healthy risk appetites... see page 3.
Underlyings
Blueknight Energy Partners LP

Canadian Natural Resources Limited

Canadian Natural Resources is an independent crude oil and natural gas exploration, development and production company. Co.'s exploration and production operations are focused in North America, largely in Western Canada; the U.K. portion of the North Sea; and CA'te d'Ivoire, Gabon, and South Africa in Offshore Africa. Co. had total proved reserves of 5.71 billion barrels of oil equivalent. Co.'s gross proved crude oil, bitumen (thermal oil), synthetic crude oil and natural gas liquids reserves totaled 4.70 billion barrels and its gross proved natural gas reserves totaled 6,106.00 billion cubic feet.

Cenovus Energy Inc.

Cenovus Energy is in the business of development, production and marketing of crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids ("NGLs") in Canada with refining operations in the U.S. Co. operates in two business segments: Upstream, which includes Co.'s development and production of crude oil, NGLs in Canada, is organized into two operations: Oil sands and conventional; and Refining and Marketing, which is focused on the refining of crude oil products into petroleum and chemical products at two refineries located in the U.S. This segment also markets Co.'s crude oil and natural gas, as well as third-party purchases and sales of product.

CONOCOPHILLIPS

ConocoPhillips is an exploration and production company engaged in exploring for, producing, transporting and marketing crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas and natural gas liquids. The company's segments include: Alaska, which operates in Alaska; Lower 48, which operates in the United States and the Gulf of Mexico; Canada, which operates in Alberta and British Columbia; Europe and North Africa, which consists of operations and exploration activities in Norway, the United Kingdom and Libya; Asia Pacific and Middle East, which operates in China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Australia, Qatar, and Timor-Leste; and Other International, which operates in Colombia, Chile and Argentina.

Continental Resources Inc.

Continental Resources is an independent crude oil and natural gas company engaged in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas mainly in the North, South and East regions of the U.S. The North region consists of properties north of Kansas and west of the Mississippi River and includes North Dakota Bakken, Montana Bakken, and the Red River units. The South region includes all properties south of Nebraska and west of the Mississippi River including various plays in the South Central Oklahoma Oil Province and Sooner Trend Anadarko Canadian Kingfisher areas of Oklahoma. The East region is comprised of undeveloped leasehold acreage east of the Mississippi River.

Daimler AG

Daimler provides a range of transportation products, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles, and also financial services. Co. operates in five segments. Mercedes-Benz Cars sells passenger cars and off-road vehicles under the Mercedes-Benz brand and small cars under the smart brand. The Daimler Trucks distributes its trucks (Mercedes-Benz, Freightliner, FUSO, Western Star, Thomas Built Buses and BharatBenz). The vans of the Mercedes-Benz Vans segment are sold under the brand name Mercedes-Benz and Freightliner. Daimler Buses sells completely built-up buses (Mercedes-Benz and Setra). The Daimler Financial Services division supports sales of Co.'s automotive brands.

Devon Energy Corporation

Devon Energy is an independent energy company engaged primarily in the exploration, development and production of oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids. The company's operations are concentrated in various onshore areas in United States. The company's areas of operation include Delaware Basin, Eagle Ford, Powder River Basin and the STACK development, located primarily in Oklahoma's Canadian, Kingfisher and Blaine counties.

Enbridge Inc.

Enbridge is an energy transportation and distribution companyoperating in 5 segments: Liquids Pipelines, consists of common carrier and contract crude oil, natural gas liquids and refined products pipelines and terminals; Gas Distribution, of Co.'s natural gas utility operations; Gas Pipelines and Processi consists of investments in natural gas pipelines and processing facilities; Green Power and Transmission, consists of Co.'s investments in renewable energy assets and transmission facilities; and Energy Services, consist of physical commodity marketing activity and logistical services.

EOG Resources Inc.

EOG Resources, together with its subsidiaries, explores for, develops, produces and markets crude oil, natural gas liquids and natural gas primarily in main producing basins in the United States, The Republic of Trinidad and Tobago, The People's Republic of China, Canada and, from time to time, select other international areas.

Ford Motor Company

Ford Motor designs, manufactures, markets, and services a line of Ford cars, trucks, sport utility vehicles, electrified vehicles, and Lincoln vehicles, as well as provides financial services through its subsidiary, Ford Motor Credit Company LLC. The company is engaged in electrification; mobility solutions, including self-driving services; and connected vehicle services. The company has three operating segments: Automotive, which includes the sale of Ford and Lincoln vehicles, service parts, and accessories; Mobility, which includes its autonomous vehicles and its investment in mobility through Ford Smart Mobility LLC; and Ford Credit, which includes vehicle-related financing and leasing activities.

General Motors Company

General Motors designs, builds and sells trucks, crossovers, cars and automobile parts. The company also provides automotive financing services through its subsidiary, General Motors Financial Company, Inc. (GM Financial). GM Financial provides retail loan and lease lending across the credit spectrum. GM Financial provides commercial lending products to dealers including new and used vehicle inventory floorplan financing and dealer loans, which are loans to finance improvements to dealership facilities, to provide working capital, and to purchase and/or finance dealership real estate. Other commercial lending products include financing for parts and accessories, dealer fleets and storage centers.

Genesis Energy L.P.

Genesis Energy is a limited partnership focused on the midstream segment of the crude oil and natural gas industry in the Gulf of Mexico and the Gulf Coast region of the United States. The company provides an integrated suite of services to refiners, crude oil and natural gas producers, and industrial and commercial enterprises and has a portfolio of assets, including pipelines, offshore hub and junction platforms, refinery-related plants, storage tanks and terminals, railcars, rail unloading facilities, barges and other vessels, and trucks. The company has four segments: offshore pipeline transportation, sodium minerals and sulfur services, onshore facilities and transportation and marine transportation.

Global Partners LP

Hess Corporation

Hess is a global exploration and production company engaged in exploration, development, production, transportation, purchase and sale of crude oil, natural gas liquid (NGL), and natural gas with production operations located primarily in the United States, Guyana, the Malaysia/Thailand Joint Development Area, Malaysia and Denmark. The company's Midstream operating segment provides fee-based services, including gathering, compressing and processing natural gas and fractionating NGL; gathering, terminaling, loading and transporting crude oil and NGL; storing and terminaling propane, and water handling services primarily in the Bakken shale play in the Williston Basin area of North Dakota.

Holly Energy Partners L.P.

Holly Energy Partners operates a system of petroleum product and crude pipelines, storage tanks, distribution terminals, loading rack facilities and refinery processing units in Texas, New Mexico, Utah, Nevada, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Kansas, Idaho and Washington. The company has two segments: Pipelines and Terminals, which transports light refined products from HollyFrontier Corporation's (HFC's) Navajo refinery in New Mexico and Delek US Holdings, Inc.'s Big Spring refinery in Texas; and Refinery Processing Unit, which supports HFC's refineries daily operations, which chemically transform crude oil into various petroleum products, including gasoline, diesel, liquefied petroleum gases, asphalt.

Honda Motor ADS

Imperial Oil Limited

Imperial Oil is an integrated oil company. Co. is active in all phases of the petroleum industry in Canada, including the exploration for, and production and sale of, crude oil and natural gas. In Canada, Co. is a producer of crude oil, natural gas and petroleum refiner and a marketer of petroleum products. Co. is also a producer of petrochemicals. As of Dec 31 2017, Co. had 1.57 billion barrels of oil-equivalent basis of net proved reserves, which consisted of 44.0 million barrels of liquids, 641.00 billion cubic feet of natural gas, 473.0 million barrels of synthetic oil, and 946.0 million barrels of bitumen.

Kinder Morgan Inc Class P

Kinder Morgan is an energy infrastructure company. The company's segments are: Natural Gas Pipelines, which includes the ownership and operation of, among others, main interstate and intrastate natural gas pipeline and storage systems; Products Pipelines, which includes the refined petroleum products, crude oil and condensate pipelines; Terminals, which includes the ownership and/or operation of, among others, liquids and bulk terminal facilities; and carbon dioxide (CO2), which includes the production, transportation and marketing of CO2, ownership interests in and/or operation of oil fields and gasoline processing plants in West Texas.

Occidental Petroleum Corporation

Occidental Petroleum has three reporting segments: oil and gas, which explores for, develops and produces oil and condensate, natural gas liquids (NGL) and natural gas; chemical, which mainly manufactures and markets basic chemicals (chlorine, caustic soda, chlorinated organics, potassium chemicals, ethylene dichloride, chlorinated isocyanurates, sodium silicates and calcium chloride) and vinyls (vinyl chloride monomer, polyvinyl chloride and ethylene); and marketing and midstream, which purchases, markets, gathers, processes, transports and stores oil, condensate, NGL, natural gas, carbon dioxide and power.

Pembina Pipeline Corporation

Pembina Pipeline has four operating segments: conventional pipelines business, which is a tariff-based operation consisting of pipelines and related facilities that deliver crude oil and natural gas liquids; oil sands and heavy oil business, which consists of the Syncrude Pipeline, the Cheecham Lateral and the Horizon Pipeline; midstream and marketing business, which consists of Co.'s direct and indirect interest in a storage operation, its direct interest in terminals, storage and hub services under a mixture of short, medium and long-term contractual arrangements; and gas services business which consists of natural gas gathering and processing facilities.

Phillips 66 Partners LP

Pioneer Natural Resources Company

Pioneer Natural Resources is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in oil and gas exploration and production. The company explores for, develops and produces oil, Natural Gas Liquids and gas within the United States, with operations in the Permian Basin in West Texas. The company's portfolio of resources are located in the Spraberry/Wolfcamp oil field.

Plains All American Pipeline L.P.

Plains All American Pipeline is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company owns and operates midstream energy infrastructure and provides logistics services for crude oil, natural gas liquids (NGL) and natural gas. The company has three operating segments: Transportation, which provides activities associated with transporting crude oil and NGL on pipelines, gathering systems, trucks and barges; Facilities, which provides storage, terminalling and throughput services for crude oil, NGL and natural gas, as well as NGL fractionation and isomerization services and natural gas and condensate processing services; and Supply and Logistics, which provides merchant-related activities.

Plains GP Holdings LP Class A

Riley Exploration Permian, Inc.

Stellantis N.V.

Suncor Energy Inc.

Suncor Energy is an energy company. Co.'s operations include oil sands development and upgrading, onshore and offshore oil and gas production, petroleum refining, and product marketing under the Petro-Canada brand. Co.'s segments include: oil sands, which develop and produce synthetic crude oil and related products through the recovery and upgrading of bitumen; exploration and production, which include offshore activity, and the exploration and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids; and refining and marketing, which include the refining of crude oil products, and the distribution and marketing of these and other purchased products, as well as a lubricants plant.

Tata Motors Limited Sponsored ADR

TC Energy Corporation

TransCanada is an energy company. Co. operates three business segments: natural gas pipeline, which transports natural gas across Canada, the U.S. and Mexico, and has regulated natural gas storage facilities in Michigan with a total capacity of 250 billion cubic ft.; liquids pipelines, which consists of wholly-owned and operated crude oil pipeline systems that connects Alberta and U.S. crude oil supplies to U.S. refining markets, as well as connecting U.S. crude oil supplies from the Cushing, OK hub to refining markets in the U.S Gulf Coast; and energy, which includes a portfolio of power generation assets in Canada and the U.S., and unregulated natural gas storage assets in Alberta.

Toyota Motor ADS

USD Partners LP

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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