Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 46.46 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJIA All Testing Resistance

We continue to see the market indexes as consolidating within broad horizontal trading ranges in 2023, and we expect the top-end of the range to be 4165-4200 on the S&P 500, with the bottom-end at the 2022 lows (3490). Another possible support level we are monitoring is at the December 2022 lows (3765). In last week's Compass (3/21) we discussed the potential for a 2-5% rally to the 1.5-month downtrend on the S&P 500, or even the 4165-4200 range, which we noted would set up an opportunity to get more defensive. The S&P 500 rallied precisely to the downtrend before turning lower on Wednesday; as long as the S&P 500 is below Wednesdays high of 4040 we continue to believe the bears are in control -- stay defensive.

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), Dow Jones Industrial Avg., Russell 2000 (IWM). The S&P 500 remains near 1.5-month downtrend resistance; even if there is a reversal, we still expect 4165-4200 to cap upside for 2023. Additionally, the QQQ is testing $315 resistance, a key level going back to 2021, and the DJIA is testing resistance at the 1.5-month downtrend/32,500. These are significant hurdles that point to limited upside. The Russell 2000 (IWM) has managed to hold above the key $170 support level (the December 2022 lows, but also a critical level dating back to 2018)... see below & page 3.
Downgrading Financials. We are downgrading Financials to underweight -- reduce exposure. For months we had been expecting RS to move lower and toward multi-year support on the XLF, and RS ended up breaking below support... see page 4.
Defensive Areas Outperforming. Defensive areas of the market including Consumer Staples (XLP) and mega-cap pharmaceuticals (PPH) display meaningful price and RS improvement -- add exposure. More outperformance from defensives would be consistent with a broad equity market that is under pressure... see pages 2 and 5.
10-Year Treasury Yield; Bitcoin. The 10-year Treasury yield continues to holds above 3.4% support. Bitcoin is testing major resistance at 29,000.
Underlyings
Bridgford Foods Corp.

Bridgford Foods and its subsidiaries are primarily engaged in the manufacturing, marketing and distribution of a line of frozen and snack food products. The company manufactures nearly all of its food products and distributes a line of biscuits, bread dough items, roll dough items, dry sausage products and beef jerky. The company has two reportable operating segments: frozen food products, which engages in the processing and distribution of frozen products; and snack food products, which engages in the processing and distribution of meat and other convenience foods.

Church & Dwight Co. Inc.

Church & Dwight develops, manufactures and markets a range of consumer products. The company's consumer products include: ARM & HAMMER? baking soda, cat litter, laundry detergent, carpet deodorizer and other baking soda based products; TROJAN? condoms, lubricants and vibrators; OXICLEAN? stain removers, cleaning solutions, laundry detergents and bleach alternatives; SPINBRUSH? battery-operated toothbrushes; FIRST RESPONSE? home pregnancy and ovulation test kits; NAIR? depilatories; ORAJEL? oral analgesic; XTRA? laundry detergent; L'IL CRITTERS? and VITAFUSION? gummy dietary supplements; BATISTE? dry shampoo; WATERPIK? water flossers and showerheads, and FLAWLESS? hair removal products.

Clorox Company

Clorox is a manufacturer and marketer of consumer products. The company sells its products through mass retailers, grocery outlets, warehouse clubs, dollar stores, home hardware centers, drug, pet and military stores, third-party and owned e-commerce channels, and distributors. The company has four reportable segments: Cleaning, which consists of laundry, home care and other products; Household, which consists of charcoal, bags, wraps and containers, cat litter, and digestive health products; Lifestyle, which consists of food products, water-filtration systems and filters, natural personal care products, and dietary supplements; and International, which consists of products sold outside the United States.

Coca-Cola European Partners Plc

Coty Inc. Class A

Coty and its subsidiaries are a beauty company. The company manufactures, markets, sells and distributes beauty products, including fragrances, color cosmetics, hair care products and skin and body related products. The company is organized into three divisions, which is also its operating and reportable segments: Consumer Beauty, Luxury and Professional Beauty. Consumer Beauty is primarily focused on color cosmetics, retail hair coloring and styling products, body care and mass fragrances. Luxury is primarily focused on fragrances, skincare and cosmetics. Professional Beauty is primarily focused on hair and nail care products for salon personnel.

E.l.f. Beauty Inc.

e.l.f. Beauty is a beauty company. The company conducts business under the name e.l.f. Cosmetics. The company's portfolio spans the eyes, lips, face, kits, tools and skin care categories. The company's primary trademarks include e.l.f., eyes lips face and play beautifully, all of which are registered with the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office for its goods and services of primary interest. These trademarks are also registered or have registrations pending in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, the European Union, India, Mexico, Russia and other countries or registries.

Edgewell Personal Care Co.

Edgewell Personal Care is a manufacturer and marketer of personal care products. The company's segments are: Wet Shave, which manufactures and distributes Schick and Wilkinson Sword razor systems, composed of razor handles and refillable blades, and disposable shave products for men and women; Sun and Skin Care, which markets sun care products under the Banana Boat and Hawaiian Tropic brands; Feminine Care, which provides tampons under the Playtex Gentle Glide? 360??, Playtex Sport?, Playtex and o.b. brands, and markets pads and liners under the Stayfree and Carefree brands; and All Other, which includes infant care, pet care and miscellaneous other products.

Inter Parfums Inc.

Inter Parfums operates in the fragrance business, and manufactures, markets and distributes a range of fragrance and fragrance related products. The company manages its business in two segments, European based operations, which produces and distributes its fragrance products primarily under license agreements with brand owners, and fragrance product sales, as well as built a portfolio of brands, which include Boucheron, Coach, Jimmy Choo, Karl Lagerfeld, Lanvin, Montblanc, Paul Smith, and Repetto; and U.S. based operations, which brand fragrance products are sold under trademarks owned by the company or pursuant to license or other agreements with the owners of brands, which include Abercrombie & Fitch.

Lamb Weston Holdings Inc.

Lamb Weston Holdings is a producer, distributor, and marketer of frozen potato products. French fries represent the majority of the company's frozen potato product portfolio. The company's segments include: Global, which includes branded and private label frozen potato products sold in North America and international markets; Foodservice, which includes branded and private label frozen potato products sold throughout the U.S. and Canada; Retail, which includes consumer facing retail branded and private label frozen potato products sold primarily to grocery, mass merchants, club, and specialty retailers; and Other, which includes the company's vegetable and dairy businesses.

Lancaster Colony Corporation

Lancaster Colony is a manufacturer and marketer of food products for the retail and foodservice channels. Within its Retail segment, the primary food products the company manufactures and sells include: frozen garlic breads; frozen Parkerhouse style yeast rolls and dinner rolls; salad dressings; vegetable dips and fruit dips; flatbread wraps and pizza crusts; sprouted grain bakery products; salad dressings; and croutons and salad toppings. Within its Foodservice segment, the primary food products the company manufactures and sells include: salad dressings; frozen garlic breads; frozen Parkerhouse style yeast rolls and dinner rolls; and frozen pasta.

Monster Beverage Corporation

Monster Beverage is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company develops, markets, sells and distributes energy drink beverages and concentrates for energy drink beverages. The company has the following operating and reportable segments: Monster Energy? Drinks segment, which is primarily comprised of the company's Monster Energy? drinks and Reign Total Body Fuel? energy drinks; Strategic Brands segment, which is comprised primarily of the various energy drink brands from The Coca-Cola Company, as well as its energy drinks; and Other segment, which is comprised of certain prod ucts sold by American Fruits and Flavors, LLC, a wholly-owned subsidiary, to independent third-party customers.

Nomad Foods Ltd.

PepsiCo Inc.

PepsiCo is a food and beverage company. The company's segments include: Frito-Lay North America, which includes food and snack businesses in the United States and Canada; Quaker Foods North America, which includes cereal, rice, pasta and other food businesses in the United States and Canada; PepsiCo Beverages North America, which includes beverage businesses in the United States and Canada; Latin America, which includes beverage, food and snack businesses in Latin America; Europe, which includes beverage, food and snack businesses in Europe; and Africa, Middle East and South Asia, which includes beverage, food and snack businesses in Africa, the Middle East and South Asia.

Post Holdings Inc.

Post Holdings is a consumer packaged goods holding company. The company's segments are: Post Consumer Brands, which manufactures, markets and sells branded and private label ready-to-eat (RTE) cereal and hot cereal products; Weetabix, which markets and distributes branded and private label RTE cereal products; Foodservice, which produces and distributes egg and potato products; Refrigerated Retail, which produces and distributes side dishes, eggs and egg, cheese, sausage and other refrigerated products; and BellRing Brands, which markets and distributes ready-to-drink protein shakes, other RTD beverages, powders, nutrition bars and supplements in the nutrition category.

Prestige Consumer Healthcare Inc

Prestige Consumer Healthcare is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company develops, manufactures, markets, sells and distributes over-the-counter (OTC) healthcare products to mass merchandisers and drug, food, dollar, convenience, and club stores in North America (the U.S. and Canada) and in Australia and certain other international markets. The company's portfolio of OTC Healthcare products includes, among others, DenTek oral care products, Monistat women's health products, Nix lice treatment products, Chloraseptic sore throat treatments, Clear Eyes eye care products, Compound W wart treatments, Luden's throat drops, BC and Goody's pain relievers and Debrox earwax remover.

Procter & Gamble Company

Procter & Gamble provides consumer packaged goods. The company's products are sold primarily through mass merchandisers, e-commerce, grocery stores, membership club stores, drug stores, department stores, distributors, wholesalers, baby stores, beauty stores, other stores and pharmacies. The company has five reportable segments: Beauty, which includes hair care, and skin and personal care products; Grooming, which includes shave care products; Health Care, which includes oral care and personal health care products; Fabric and Home Care, which includes fabric care and home care products; and Baby, Feminine and Family Care, which includes baby care, feminine care and family care products.

TreeHouse Foods Inc.

TreeHouse Foods is a consumer packaged food and beverage manufacturer operating across the United States, Canada, and Italy. The company's reportable segments are: Baked Goods, which sells bars, candy, cookies, crackers; in-store bakery products, pita chips, pretzels, refrigerated dough, and retail griddle waffles, pancakes, and French toast; Beverages, which sells broths, liquid non-dairy creamer, non-dairy powdered creamers, powdered drinks, ready-to-drink coffee, single serve hot beverages, teas, and sweeteners; and Meal Solutions, which sells aseptic cheese and pudding products, baking and mix powders, hot cereals, pasta, and skillet dinners, among others.

Unilever PLC ADS

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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