Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 46.72 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Panic Selling Achieved, Now Waiting for Panic Buying

For the past two weeks we have noted that a test of the lows, and possibly a break to new lows, is increasingly likely on the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). We are getting that test now, following some indiscriminate selling late last week which produced back-to-back 80%+ downside volume days on the NYSE. There can certainly be more 80%-90%+ downside days that take the indexes to new lows, but we will need to see back-to-back 80%+ upside volume days or one 90%+ upside volume day on the NYSE in order to have confidence that a major market bottom is in place.

Panic Selling Achieved, Now Waiting for Panic Buying. One ingredient that is historically needed to find a major market bottom is downside capitulation or a "selling climax," where indiscriminate selling takes place and stocks are dumped with reckless abandon. We finally got that last week as the NYSE had 83% down volume on Thursday, followed by 90.8% down volume on Friday. Still, this is only half of the equation, as there can certainly be more 80-90%+ downside days that take the indexes much lower. Ultimately, we will need to see back-to-back 80%+ upside volume days or one 90%+ upside volume day (i.e., panic buying) in order to have confidence that a major bottom is in place.
S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, & Russell 2000 At/Near Support. These indexes remain below key resistance levels of 4600 on the S&P 500, $371 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and, arguably the most important of all, $209 on the Russell 2000 (IWM). We are neutral to bearish as long as these indexes are below resistance. Now, each index has fallen to test support at the YTD lows -- a logical spot for a bounce... see charts below.
Big Picture Trends. Reopening stocks are starting to shine (airliners, hotels, etc.). The Russell 1000 Value vs. Growth ratio is testing resistance. The 10-year Treasury yield is at 1-week lows. Growth/Tech ETFs (XLK, RYT, IGV, ARKK) and Industrials (XLI) are testing important support. Equal-weighted Consumer Discretionary (RCD) is positively diverging. Energy (RYE) is violating steep price and RS uptrends. Banks (KRE) remain in downtrends. Real Estate (XLRE, VNQ) is breaking to new RS highs... see pages 3-7.
Underlyings
Cal-Maine Foods Inc.

Cal-Maine Foods is a producer and marketer of shell eggs. The company has one operating segment, which is the production, grading, packaging, marketing and distribution of shell eggs. The company sells most of its shell eggs in the southwestern, southeastern, mid-western and mid-Atlantic regions of the U.S. through its distribution network to a group of customers, including national and regional grocery store chains, club stores, foodservice distributors and egg product consumers. The company markets cage-free eggs under its trademarked Farmhouse? brand and distributes them across the southeast and southwest regions of the U.S. The company markets organic, cage-free, vegetarian, and omega-3 eggs under its 4-Grain? brand.

Constellation Brands Inc. Class A

Constellation Brands is an international beverage alcohol company. The company is a producer and marketer of beer, wine and spirits with operations in the U.S., Mexico, New Zealand, Italy and Canada. The company has two segments: Beer, in which the company is engaged in the U.S. beer market that includes the imported, craft, domestic super premium, and alternative beverage alcohol categories and it has the right to import, market and sell these Mexican beer brands in the U.S.; and Wine and Spirits, in which its wine portfolio is supported by grapes purchased from independent growers, primarily in the U.S., New Zealand and Chile, and vineyard holdings in the U.S., New Zealand and Italy.

Diageo PLC (ADR)

Graphic Packaging Holding Company

Graphic Packaging Holding is a provider of paper-based packaging solutions for a range of products to food, beverage, foodservice and other consumer products companies. The company's segments are: Paperboard Mills, which produces primarily coated-recycled paperboard, coated unbleached kraft paperboard, and solid bleached sulfate paperboard; Americas Paperboard Packaging, which includes paperboard packaging, primarily folding cartons, sold to Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) companies, and cups, among others; and Europe Paperboard Packaging, which includes paperboard packaging, primarily folding cartons, sold primarily to CPG companies serving the food, beverage and consumer product markets in Europe.

Hormel Foods Corporation

Hormel Foods is primarily engaged in the production of meat and food products and the marketing of those products throughout the United States and internationally. The company's segments are: Grocery Products, which consists of the processing, marketing, and sale of shelf-stable food products; Refrigerated Foods, which consists of the processing, marketing, and sale of branded and unbranded pork, beef, chicken, and turkey products; Jennie-O Turkey Store, which consists of the processing, marketing, and sale of branded and unbranded turkey products; and International and Other, which includes Hormel Foods International Corporation that manufactures, markets, and sells the company's products internationally.

Industrias Bachoco S.A.B. de C.V. ADS

International Paper Company

International Paper is a producer of renewable fiber-based packaging, pulp and paper products with manufacturing operations in North America, Latin America, Europe, North Africa, India and Russia. The company's segments are: Industrial Packaging, which manufactures containerboard, such as linerboard, medium, whitetop, recycled linerboard, recycled medium and saturating kraft; Global Cellulose Fibers, which produces fluff pulp for making absorbent hygiene products like baby diapers, feminine care, adult incontinence and other non-woven products; and Printing Papers, which produces printing and writing papers, such as uncoated papers for use in copiers, desktop and laser printers and digital imaging.

Maui Land & Pineapple Co. Inc.

Maui Land & Pineapple develops, sells, and manages residential, resort, commercial, agricultural and industrial real estate through the following business segments: Real Estate, which includes various land planning, entitlement, development and sales activities of its landholdings on Maui; Leasing, which includes residential, resort, commercial, agricultural and industrial land and property leases, licensing of the company's registered trademarks and trade names, and stewardship and conservation efforts; Utilities, which includes the operations of Kapalua Water Company, Ltd. and Kapalua Waste Treatment Company, Ltd; and Resort Amenities, which includes the operations of the Kapalua Club.

Mercer International Inc.

MGP Ingredients Inc.

MGP Ingredients is a producer and supplier of distilled spirits and specialty wheat protein and starch food ingredients. The company has two reportable segments: distillery products and ingredient solutions. The distillery products segment processes corn and other grains (including rye, barley, wheat, barley malt, and milo) into food grade alcohol and distillery co-products, such as distillers feed (called dried distillers grain in the industry), fuel grade alcohol, and corn oil. The company also provides warehouse services. The ingredient solutions segment consists primarily of specialty wheat starches, specialty wheat proteins, commodity wheat starches, and commodity wheat proteins.

Mien Trung Power Investment and Development

Mien Trung Power Invs & Dev JSC. Mien Trung Power Investment and Development Joint Stock Company is a Vietnam-based company engaged in the electric utility sector. The Company principally generates and distributes hydroelectric power. It is also engaged in the provision of construction services of hydro power plants, civil and industrial works, as well as installation services of concrete components and steel structures for construction works. In addition, the Company is involved in the exploitation, manufacture and trade of construction materials, such as stones, sand and pebbles; as well as real estate activities and office leasing services. It supplies electric power to Khanh Hoa Power Joint Stock Company.

Packaging Corporation of America

Packaging Corporation of America is a producer of containerboard products and a producer of uncoated freesheet paper. The company's segments include: Packaging, which produces a variety of corrugated packaging products, including shipping containers, multi-color boxes and displays, and honeycomb protective packaging, as well as produces packaging for meat, fresh fruit and vegetables, processed food, beverages, and other industrial and consumer products; Paper, which manufactures and sells papers, including both commodity and specialty papers; and Corporate and Other, which includes transportation assets, such as rail cars and trucks, to transport the company's products to and from its manufacturing sites.

Pilgrim's Pride Corporation

Pilgrims Pride is primarily engaged in the production, processing, marketing and distribution of fresh, frozen chicken products to retailers, distributors and foodservice operators. The company's primary product types are fresh chicken products, prepared chicken products and export chicken products. The company's fresh chicken products consist of refrigerated (nonfrozen) whole or cut-up chicken, either pre-marinated or non-marinated and prepackaged case-ready chicken. The company's case-ready chicken includes various combinations of freshly refrigerated, whole chickens and chicken parts in trays, bags or other consumer packs labeled and priced ready for the retail grocer's fresh meat counter.

Resolute Forest Products Inc.

Resolute Forest Products is engaged in the forest products industry, with a range of products, including market pulp, tissue, wood products, newsprint and specialty papers. The company's segments are: Market pulp, which includes virgin pulp and recycled bleached kraft pulp; Tissue, which manufactures a range of tissue products for the away-from-home and at-home markets; Wood products, which produce dimension spruce-pine-fir lumber and provides wood chips to its pulp and paper mills in Canada; Newsprint, which sells newsprint; and Specialty papers, which composed of uncoated mechanical papers, including supercalendered paper and white paper, as well as uncoated freesheet papers.

Sanderson Farms Inc.

Sanderson Farms is a poultry processing company engaged in the production, processing, marketing and distribution of frozen chicken products, including processed and minimally prepared chicken. The company sells ice-packed, chill-packed, bulk-packed and frozen chicken, in whole, cut-up and boneless form to retailers, distributors, and casual dining operators, and to customers who resell frozen chicken into export markets. The company operates through: Sanderson Farms, Inc. (Production Division), which is engaged in the production of chickens to the broiler stage; and Sanderson Farms, Inc. (Processing Division), which is engaged in the processing, sale and distribution of chicken products.

Seneca Foods Corp. Cl A

Seneca Foods is a provider of packaged fruits and vegetables. The company's product offerings include canned, frozen and bottled produce and snack chips and its products are sold under private label as well as national and regional brands that the company owns or licenses, including Seneca?, Libby's?, Aunt Nellie's?, READ?, Green Valley?, and CherryMan?. The company manages its business on the basis of three reportable segments - the primary segment is the packaging and sale of fruits and vegetables, another segment is prepared food and the last segment is the packaging and sale of chip products. These three segments constitute the food operation.

Sonoco Products Company

Sonoco Products is a manufacturer of industrial and consumer packaging products and a provider of packaging services. The company's segments are: Consumer Packaging, which includes round composite cans, shaped rigid paperboard containers, fiber and plastic caulk/adhesive tubes, aluminum, steel and peelable membrane easy-open closures for composite and metal cans; Paper and Industrial Converted Products, which include recycled paperboard, chipboard, tubeboard, lightweight corestock, boxboard, linerboard, corrugating medium, edgeboard, paper grades, and adhesives; Display and Packaging, which include point-of-purchase displays; and Protective Solutions, which include packaging and components.

Tyson Foods Inc. Class A

Tyson Foods is a food company. The company's operations consist of breeding stock, contract farmers, feed production, processing, further-processing, marketing and transportation of chicken and related allied products, including animal and pet food ingredients. Through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Cobb-Vantress, Inc., the company is engaged as poultry breeding stock supplier. The company also processes live fed cattle and hogs and fabricates dressed beef and pork carcasses into primal and sub-primal meat cuts, case-ready beef and pork and fully-cooked meats. The company produces a range of fresh, frozen and refrigerated food products. The company operates in Beef, Pork, Chicken and Prepared Foods segments.

Veritiv Corp

Veritiv is a business-to-business distributor of packaging, facility solutions, print and publishing products and services. Co has the following reportable segments: Packaging, which provides standard as well as custom packaging solutions; Facility Solutions, which sources and sells cleaning, break-room and other supplies such as towels, tissues, wipers and dispensers, can liners, commercial cleaning chemicals, soaps and sanitizers; Print, which sells and distributes commercial printing, writing, copying, digital, specialty products, graphics consumables and graphics equipment; and Publishing and Print Management, which sells and distributes coated and uncoated commercial printing papers.

WestRock Company

WestRock is a provider of paper and packaging solutions for consumer and corrugated packaging markets. The company partners with its customers to provide paper and packaging solutions. The company's operating and business locations are in North America, South America, Europe, Asia and Australia. The company's segments include: Corrugated Packaging, which consists of the company's containerboard mills, corrugated packaging and distribution operations, as well as its merchandising displays and recycling procurement operations; Consumer Packaging, which consists of the company's consumer mills, food and beverage and partition operations; and Land and Development, which sells real estate primarily in the Charleston, SC region.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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