Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 233.43 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Shifting to large-cap overweight

Supporting our bullish outlook, the S&P 500's steady uptrend remains intact despite China opting to give the Trump administration the silent treatment, calling off high-level trade talks. Additionally, the large-cap (S&P 500) vs. small-cap (S&P 600) ratio is breaking out to multi-month highs; shift to an overweight of large-caps... see chart below.

• Sector Relative Strength Rankings (RSRs). Health Care remains atop our rankings from both a cap- and equal-weighted perspective - stay overweight and continue to focus on outperforming medical device/equipment stocks. Rising commodity prices helped fuel strong gains from Materials and Energy last week, while the backup in rates has led to price and RS deterioration for the defensive bond proxies (Utilities and Staples)... see page 2.

• Situation improving for developed int'l markets. We have previously highlighted our concern that weakness overseas may spill over and adversely affect U.S. markets. With bullish price and RS inflections for developed int'l (VEA) particularly due to strength in Japan, this concern has been somewhat alleviated. Unfortunately, EM (EEM) remains in price and RS downtrends, dampening risk sentiment... see page 3.

• Interest rates, cyclicals vs. staples, and growth vs. value. A concern that remains at the forefront is interest rates, which have continued to rise and are currently up against resistance. Thus far the market has been seemingly been unphased by the uptick in interest rates. We also take a look at cyclicals vs. staples and growth vs. value ratios... see page 4.

• In today's report we highlight attractive Groups within Energy and Transportation: EN-17 Oil and Gas Drilling, Offshore, TR-10 Railroads, Large-Cap, and TR-11 Railroads, Small-Cap... see pages 9-16.
Underlyings
Canadian National Railway Company

Canadian National Railway, together with its wholly-owned subsidiaries, is engaged in the rail and related transportation business. Co.'s network of approximately 20,000 route miles of track spans Canada and mid-America, from the Atlantic and Pacific oceans to the Gulf of Mexico. Co.'s network and connections to all Class I railroads provide access to all three North American Free Trade Agreement nations. Co. handles and carries cargo, serving exporters, importers, retailers, farmers and manufacturers. Co. is engaged in the movement of a portfolio of goods, including petroleum and chemicals, grain and fertilizers, coal, metals and minerals, forest products, intermodal and automotive.

Canadian Pacific Railway Limited

Canadian Pacific Railway operates a transcontinental railway in Canada and the U.S. Co.'s business mix includes bulk commodities, merchandise freight and intermodal traffic, serving the principal business centers of Canada from Montreal, Quebec, to Vancouver, British Columbia, and the U.S. Northeast and Midwest regions. As of Dec 31 2016, Co. operated on a network of approximately 12,400 miles of track, of which CP owns 10,800 miles and has access to 1,600 miles under trackage rights and lease agreements. Of the total mileage operated, about 5,600 miles were located in western Canada, 2,000 miles in eastern Canada, 4,400 miles in the U.S. Midwest and 400 miles in the U.S. Northeast.

CSX Corporation

CSX provides rail-based freight transportation services. The company's principal operating subsidiary, CSX Transportation, Inc., provides a link to the transportation supply chain through its rail network, which serves centers in states east of the Mississippi River, the District of Columbia and the Canadian provinces of Ontario and Quebec. The company's CSX Intermodal Terminals, Inc. subsidiary owns and operates a system of intermodal terminals, primarily in the eastern United States and also performs drayage services (the pickup and delivery of intermodal shipments). The company's Total Distribution Services, Inc. subsidiary serves the automotive industry with distribution centers and storage locations.

Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc.

Diamond Offshore Drilling provides contract drilling services to the energy industry around the globe. The company's fleet enables it to provide services in the floater market on a worldwide basis. The company's contracts to provide offshore drilling services vary in their terms and provisions. The principal markets for the company's offshore contract drilling services are: the Gulf of Mexico, including the U.S., and Mexico; South America, principally offshore Brazil, and Trinidad and Tobago; Australia and Southeast Asia, including Malaysia, Indonesia, Myanmar and Vietnam; Europe, principally offshore the U.K., and Norway; East and West Africa; and the Mediterranean.

Genesee & Wyoming Inc. Class A

Genesee & Wyoming owns or leases freight railroads worldwide. The company has three segments: North American Operations, which includes several regions that serve U.S. states and Canadian provinces and includes short line and regional freight railroads; Australian Operations, which serves New South Wales, the Northern Territory and South Australia and operates the Tarcoola-to-Darwin rail line; and U.K./European Operations, which is led by Freightliner Group Limited, a rail maritime intermodal operator and rail freight provider, as well as regional rail services in Continental Europe.

Kansas City Southern

Kansas City Southern is a transportation holding company with domestic and international rail operations in North America. The company's subsidiary, The Kansas City Southern Railway Company, is a United States Class I railroad that serves a several region in the midwest and southeast regions of United States and has north/south rail route between Kansas City, MO and several main ports along the Gulf of Mexico in Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas. The company's subsidiary, Kansas City Southern de Mexico, S.A. de C.V. operates a main commercial corridor of the Mexican railroad system and has as its main route a direct rail passageway between Mexico City and Laredo, TX.

Noble Corporation plc

Norfolk Southern Corporation

Norfolk Southern is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in the rail transportation of raw materials, intermediate products, and finished goods primarily in the Southeast, East, and Midwest and, via interchange with rail carriers, to and from the rest of the United States. The company also transports overseas freight through several Atlantic and Gulf Coast ports. The company provides intermodal network in the eastern half of the United States. The company's railroad operates in several states and the District of Columbia. The company's system reaches manufacturing plants, electric generating facilities, mines, distribution centers, transload facilities, and other businesses in its service area.

Rowan Cos. Plc Class A

Transocean Ltd.

Union Pacific Corporation

Union Pacific, through its operating subsidiary, Union Pacific Railroad Company, is a Class I railroad operating in the United States. The company's network included route miles, linking Pacific Coast and Gulf Coast ports with the Midwest and eastern United States. gateways and providing several corridors to key Mexican gateways. The company serves the western two-thirds of the country and maintains coordinated schedules with other rail carriers for the handling of freight to and from the Atlantic Coast, the Pacific Coast, the Southeast, the Southwest, Canada, and Mexico. The company's business mix includes agricultural products, energy, industrial, and premium.

Valaris PLC Class A

Ensco is an offshore contract drilling company engaged in providing offshore contract drilling services to the international oil and gas industry. As of Dec 31 2017, Co. owned and operated an offshore drilling rig fleet of 62 rigs. Co.'s rig fleet includes 12 drillships, 11 semisubmersible rigs, four moored semisubmersible rigs and 38 jackup rigs, including rigs under construction. Co.'s business consists of three operating segments: floaters, which includes its drillships and semisubmersible rigs; jackups; and other, which consists of management services on rigs owned by third-parties. Co.'s two reportable segments, floaters and jackups, provide one service, contract drilling.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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