Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Upgrading Communications and EnergyWe remain positive on U.S. and foreign equities and we are encouraged by recent developments highlighted below which are primarily of the bullish variety.
• Upgrades: We are upgrading Comm. Services (XLC) to overweight and equal-weighted Energy (RYE) to market weight due to an RS breakout for the XLC and bullish RS reversals for several energy ETFs (RYE, XOP, IEO). Add exposure. See charts below and Sector comments on pages 4-5 for actionable ideas.
• Additional bullish developments: Several cyclical areas of the market are breaking topside key resistance, including Financials (both in the U.S. and Europe - XLF/RYF, EUFN), Transports (IYT), and global autos (CARZ)... see page 2.
• Still developing: Small-caps (IWM), banks (KBE, KRE), and equal-weighted Discretionary (RCD) remain below resistance. Breakouts would go a long way in supporting a more bullish outlook. With the 10- vs. 2-year Treasury yield spread hitting YTD highs, banks may begin to see a tailwind... see pages 2-3.
• U.S. dollar breakout raises concerns: The U.S. dollar has broken above 97.70 resistance on the DXY, a concerning development. On the bright side, global equities have not yet reacted in a meaningfully negative way... see page 3.
• Actionable Industry ETFs: SMH, XHB, KCE, and XOP... see page 10.
• EM and Int'l: EM (EEM, VWO) and developed int'l (EFA, VEA) ETFs have pulled back to logical support as price bottoms continue to develop -- add exposure... see page 11.
• Actionable int'l ETFs: MCHI, GREK, HEWG, EWO, EWI, EWQ, EWL, and EWH... see pages 12-13.
Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.
Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.
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