Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Don't Fight the FedAfter a substantial rally, the S&P 500 was unable to break above its 200-day MA and market indexes have violated steep 5-week uptrends; we view this pullback as a critical test. This is where the rubber meets the road as we get to see if prior breakout levels/important moving averages hold and market indexes make a higher low, or if this was nothing more than a bear market rally and we are headed back to new lows. Barring a Fed pivot, and with Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar (DXY) inflecting higher (and potentially commodities, too), it increases the odds for a deeper pullback in the broad market indexes.
Index Overview. In our July 19 U.S. Macro Vision report, we highlighted our expectation for a more meaningful bear market bounce on breakouts above 3900 on the S&P 500, $297 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and $178 on the Russell 2000 (IWM). Considering these indexes each broke down from 5-week uptrends on Friday last week, we would advise taking some profit/raising cash as we wait and see how deep this pullback goes. Support levels we are watching include 4165 (potential break yesterday) and 4075 on the S&P 500, $313-315 on the QQQ, $190-192 on the IWM, and $118-120 on Russell Micro-Caps (IWC). Breaks below these supports would indicate a deeper pullback is underway, likely to their respective 50-day MAs at minimum. Anything below their 50-day MAs would likely mean a test of the YTD lows... see chart below and page 3.
U.S. Dollar, 10-Year Treasury Yield, Commodities. The U.S. dollar (DXY) held at 50-day MA support and the 10-year Treasury yield remains above 2.70% and displays a downtrend reversal. As we have said for months, until we see breakdowns from topping patterns on the DXY and 10-year Treasury yield, the broad equity market will have difficulty establishing a reliable bottom. Another issue we see for the market is a potential breakout brewing on the Bloomberg Commodity index (DJP). The DJP is testing $37 resistance; we are buyers on a breakout above $37, which would be problematic in terms of inflation as it would mean prices are headed higher again... see page 4.
Big Picture Trends. In addition to the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), Semiconductors (SOXX), Industrials (XLI), and Materials (XLB) all display failed breakouts; this points to lower prices ahead, at least in the near-term... see page 5.
Enphase Energy is a global energy technology company. The company designs, develops, manufactures and sells home energy solutions that connect energy generation, energy storage and control and communications management on one platform. The company's semiconductor-based microinverter converts energy at the individual solar module level and, combines with its proprietary networking and software technologies to provide energy monitoring and control. The Enphase Home Energy Solution with IQ consists of four primary components: Enphase microinverters, the AC Battery?, an Envoy gateway, and Enlighten cloud-based software.
Euronav is a provider of maritime shipping and offshore services engaged primarily in the transportation and storage of crude oil. As of Apr. 4, 2017, Co. owned and operated a modern fleet of 55 vessels (including four chartered-in vessels) with an aggregate carrying capacity of approximately 13.7 million deadweight tons, or dwt, consisting of 31 very large crude carriers, one ultra large crude carrier, 21 Suezmax vessels, and two floating, storage and offloading vessels. Co. has two operating segments: the operation of crude oil tankers on the international markets (tankers) and the floating production, storage and offloading operations.
First Solar is a provider of photovoltaic (PV) solar energy solutions. The company designs, manufactures and sells PV solar modules with a thin film semiconductor technology, and also develops and sells PV solar power systems that mainly use the modules it manufactures. The company also provides operations and maintenance (O&M) services to system owners. The company's modules segment involves the design, manufacture and sale of cadmium telluride solar modules, which convert sunlight into electricity. The company's second segment is its systems segment, through which it provides power plant solutions, which include project development, engineering, procurement, and construction services and O&M services.
Golar LNG is a midstream liquefied natural gas (LNG) company based in Bermuda. Co. is engaged in the transportation, regasification, liquefaction and trading of LNG. Through its subsidiaries and affiliates, Co. is engaged in the acquisition, ownership, operation and chartering of LNG carriers and floating storage regasification units (FSRUs), and the development of liquefaction projects such as Floating Liquefaction Natural Gas Vessels. Co. owns and operates a fleet of 19 LNG carriers and seven FSRUs, and under management agreements operates Golar LNG Partner LP's fleet of six FSRUs and four LNG carriers.
Overseas Shipholding Group is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company owns and operates a fleet of oceangoing vessels engaged in the transportation of crude oil and petroleum products in the U.S. Flag trades. The company has one reportable business segment. The company's U.S. Flag Fleet consists of various owned and chartered-in Jones Act Handysize Product Carriers and Articulated Tug Barges and non-Jones Act U.S. Flag Handysize Product Carriers that participate in the U.S. Maritime Security Program. Under the Jones Act, shipping between U.S. ports, including the movement of Alaskan crude oil to U.S. ports, is reserved for U.S. Flag vessels.
Republic Services is a provider of non-hazardous solid waste collection, transfer, disposal, recycling, and environmental services in the United States. The company operates through collection operations, transfer stations, active landfills, recycling processing centers, treatment, recovery and disposal facilities, salt water disposal wells, and deep injection wells. In addition, the company is engaged in landfill gas-to-energy and renewable energy projects and had post-closure responsibility for closed landfills. The company's operations primarily consist of providing collection, transfer and disposal of non-hazardous solid waste, recovering and recycling of certain materials, and environmental services.
SunPower is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is an energy company that delivers solar solutions to residential, commercial, and power plant customers worldwide. The company has two segments: SunPower Energy Services, which refers to sales of solar energy solutions in the North America including direct sales of turn-key engineering, procurement and construction services, and sales to resellers, among other; and SunPower Technologies, which refers to its technology development, worldwide solar panel manufacturing operations, equipment supply to resellers, commercial and residential end-customers outside of North America, and worldwide power plant project development and project sales.
Sunrun is engaged in the design, development, installation, sale, ownership, and maintenance of residential solar energy systems. The company's main solar service offerings are provided through its lease and power purchase agreements, which it refers to as its Customer Agreements. While homeowners have the option to purchase a solar energy system outright from the company, a majority of its customers choose to buy solar as a service through its Customer Agreements. With its solar service offerings, the company installs solar energy systems on its customers' homes and provides them the solar power produced by those systems. In addition, the company monitors, maintains and insures the system during the term of the contract.
Waste Connections is a solid waste services company in North America, providing waste collection, transfer, disposal and recycling services in mostly exclusive and secondary markets in the U.S. and Canada. Through its R360 Environmental Solutions subsidiary, Co. is also a provider of non-hazardous exploration and production (E&P), waste treatment, recovery and disposal services in several of the natural resource producing areas in the U.S. Co. also provides intermodal services for the rail haul movement of cargo and solid waste containers in the Pacific Northwest through a network of intermodal facilities.
Waste Management is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a provider of waste management environmental services. The company partners with its residential, commercial, industrial and municipal customers and the communities it serves to manage and reduce waste at each stage from collection to disposal, while recovering resources and creating renewable energy. The company's Solid Waste business is operated and managed by its subsidiaries that focus on various geographic areas and provide collection, transfer, disposal, and recycling and resource recovery services. Through its subsidiaries, the company is also a developer, operator and owner of landfill gas-to-energy facilities.
Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.
Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.
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