Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 235.08 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Equities Testing Support

Coronavirus concerns are reverberating throughout markets, and there is no way to know for certain how serious things will get -- or how much further markets could sell off as a result. What we can say is our weight of the evidence approach suggests this is a contained pullback for now, and that several areas of the market are testing key support. This suggests the potential for a bounce at current levels. At the same time, in light of steep uptrend breakdowns for extended leadership areas (Nasdaq, S&P 500, Technology, AAPL, large-cap growth) stemming from yesterday's selloff, we believe there is potential for consolidation in the coming weeks/months which will allow 200-day MAs to catch up with price... see charts below.

• Sector Relative Strength Rankings & Weighting Recommendations. Extended leadership areas including AAPL, cap-weighted Technology (XLK), and large-cap growth exhibit steep price and RS uptrend violations. Expect price and RS to back-and-fill in the near term... see pages 2-3.

• Equities Testing Support. The number of areas of the market currently testing support is staggering. These areas include: S&P 500, Nasdaq, small- and mid-caps, large-cap growth, large-cap value, semiconductors/Tech, Financials/banks (US & Europe/UK), Communications, Industrials, Transports, Materials, MSCI ACWI, MSCI China, and high yield bonds. We believe support is likely to hold near current levels, however breakdowns would signal additional downside is likely... see pages 4-5.

• Small- vs. Large-Caps; Value vs. Growth, 10-Year Treasury Yield. While longer-term trends certainly remain in favor of large-caps over small-caps and growth over value, we are beginning to see very early signs that these ratios may be turning in favor of small-caps and value in the near term. If this continues, it would be consistent with a bottom in Treasury yields... see page 6.

• High Yield Spreads; Utilities. High yield spreads are spiking higher (widening), however they are still below the 470 bps level that we have identified as our line of demarcation. To reiterate, it would take a decisive break above 470 bps in high yield spreads in order to give us a bearish signal for the equity market... see page 7.

In today's report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Staples and Health Care: CS-13 Soft Drinks & Bottlers, Large-Cap, CS-14 Soft Drinks & Bottlers, Small-Cap, HC-29 Hospitals, and HC-42 Pet Health... see pages 15-25.
Underlyings
Celsius Holdings Inc.

Celsius Holdings is engaged in the development, marketing, sale and distribution of functional calorie-burning fitness beverages under the Celsius? brand name. Celsius? burns calories by increasing a consumer's resting metabolism and provides energy. Celsius? uses ingredients and supplements such as green tea, ginger, calcium, chromium, B vitamins and vitamin C. The company also sells a powdered form of the active ingredients in its beverages in individual On-The-Go packets as well as several serving canisters. In addition, the company has a second line in its product portfolio, trainer's grade Celsius Heat?. Celsius Heat? is also a dietary supplement.

Coca-Cola Company

Coca-Cola is a nonalcoholic beverage company. The company owns or licenses and markets nonalcoholic beverage brands, which it groups into the following category clusters: sparkling soft drinks; water, enhanced water and sports drinks; juice, dairy and plant-based beverages; tea and coffee; and energy drinks. The company's nonalcoholic sparkling soft drink brands are Coca-Cola, Diet Coke, Fanta and Sprite. The company markets, manufactures and sells beverage concentrates and syrups, including fountain syrups; and finished sparkling soft drinks and other nonalcoholic beverages. The company's segments are Europe, Middle East and Africa; Latin America; North America; Asia Pacific; Global Ventures; and Bottling Investments.

Coca-Cola European Partners Plc

Community Health Systems Inc.

Community Health Systems is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company operates general acute care hospitals and outpatient facilities. The company provides healthcare services through the hospitals that it owns and operates and affiliated businesses in non-urban and selected urban markets. Services provided through the company's hospitals and affiliated businesses include general acute care, emergency room, general and specialty surgery, critical care, internal medicine, obstetrics, diagnostic, psychiatric and rehabilitation services. The company also provides additional outpatient services at urgent care centers, occupational medicine clinics, imaging centers, cancer centers and ambulatory surgery centers.

Freshpet Inc

Freshpet manufactures and markets refrigerated meals and treats for dogs and cats. The company's products are distributed throughout the U.S. and other international markets into retail classes including Grocery and Mass, and online, and Pet specialty and Natural retail. The company's products consist of dog food, cat food and dog and cat treats, which are made according to its nutritional philosophy of fresh, meat-based nutrition and minimal processing. The company's recipes include meat and combinations of vegetables, leafy greens and anti-oxidant rich fruits, without the use of preservatives, additives or artificial ingredients. The company's products are available in multiple forms, including bagged meals and tubs.

HCA Healthcare Inc

HCA Healthcare is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, partnerships and joint ventures, the company owns and operates hospitals and related health care entities. Most of the company's general, acute care hospitals provide medical and surgical services, including inpatient care, intensive care, cardiac care, diagnostic services and emergency services. The general, acute care hospitals also provide outpatient services such as outpatient surgery, laboratory, radiology, respiratory therapy, cardiology and physical therapy. The company's psychiatric hospitals provide therapeutic programs including child, adolescent and adult psychiatric care, adolescent and adult alcohol and drug abuse treatment and counseling.

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.

Keurig Dr Pepper is a beverage company with a portfolio of flavored (non-cola) carbonated soft drinks (CSDs), non-carbonated beverages, and is a producer of single serve brewing systems. The company's Coffee Systems segment develops and sells a variety of Keurig brewers, brewer accessories and other coffee-related equipment. The company's Packaged Beverages segment manufactures and distributes packaged beverages of its brands. The company's Beverage Concentrates segment manufactures and sells beverage concentrates. The company's Latin America Beverages segment participates mainly in the carbonated mineral water, flavored CSD, bottled water and vegetable juice categories.

Monster Beverage Corporation

Monster Beverage is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company develops, markets, sells and distributes energy drink beverages and concentrates for energy drink beverages. The company has the following operating and reportable segments: Monster Energy? Drinks segment, which is primarily comprised of the company's Monster Energy? drinks and Reign Total Body Fuel? energy drinks; Strategic Brands segment, which is comprised primarily of the various energy drink brands from The Coca-Cola Company, as well as its energy drinks; and Other segment, which is comprised of certain prod ucts sold by American Fruits and Flavors, LLC, a wholly-owned subsidiary, to independent third-party customers.

National Beverage Corp.

National Beverage is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company develops, produces, markets and sells a range of sparkling waters, juices, energy drinks and carbonated soft drinks. The company's brands consist of beverages for active and health-conscious consumer (Power+ Brands) including sparkling waters, energy drinks, and juices. The company's portfolio of Power+ Brands includes LaCroix?, LaCroix Curate?, LaCroix NiCola? and Shasta? Sparkling Water products; Rip It? energy drinks and shots; and Everfresh?, Everfresh Premier Varietals? and Mr. Pure? 100% juice and juice-based products. Additionally, the company produces and distributes carbonated soft drinks including Shasta? and Faygo? brands.

PepsiCo Inc.

PepsiCo is a food and beverage company. The company's segments include: Frito-Lay North America, which includes food and snack businesses in the United States and Canada; Quaker Foods North America, which includes cereal, rice, pasta and other food businesses in the United States and Canada; PepsiCo Beverages North America, which includes beverage businesses in the United States and Canada; Latin America, which includes beverage, food and snack businesses in Latin America; Europe, which includes beverage, food and snack businesses in Europe; and Africa, Middle East and South Asia, which includes beverage, food and snack businesses in Africa, the Middle East and South Asia.

PetIQ Inc. Class A

PetIQ is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a pet medication and wellness company providing veterinary products and services. The company's Rx pet medications include heartworm preventatives, arthritis, thyroid, diabetes and pain treatments, antibiotics and other specialty medications, all of which require a prescription from a veterinarian. The OTC medications the company sells are primarily comprised of flea and tick control products, which are available in multiple forms that consumers choose between, such as spot on (topical) treatments, chewables, and collars. The company's health and wellness products include treats and other pet products such as dental treats and nutritional supplements.

Primo Water Corporation

Cott, together with its consolidated subsidiaries, is a producer of beverages on behalf of retailers, brand owners and distributors. Co.'s Water & Coffee Solutions reporting segment provides bottled water, coffee and water filtration services to customers in North America, Europe, and Israel, and products include bottled water, coffee, brewed tea, water dispensers, coffee and tea brewers and filtration equipment. Co.'s traditional business (Cott North America, Cott U.K. and All Other reporting segments) produces carbonated soft drinks, shelf stable juice and juice-based products, sparkling flavored waters, energy drinks and shots, sports drinks, and liquid enhancers, among others.

Select Medical Holdings Corporation

Select Medical Holdings is managed through four business segments: critical illness recovery hospital, which consists of hospitals designed to serve the needs of patients recovering from critical illnesses; rehabilitation hospital, which consists of hospitals designed to serve patients that require intensive physical rehabilitation care; outpatient rehabilitation, which consists of clinics that provide physical, occupational, and speech rehabilitation services; and the company's subsidiary, Concentra Inc. segment, which consists of occupational health centers that provide workers' compensation injury care, physical therapy, and consumer health services and onsite clinics.

Surgery Partners Inc.

Surgery Partners is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a healthcare services company. The company operates in three reporting segments : Surgical Facility Services, which consists of the operation of ambulatory surgery centers (ASCs) and surgical hospitals; Ancillary Services, which consists of a diagnostic laboratory and multi-specialty physician practices; and Optical Services, which consists of an optical laboratory and an optical products group purchasing organization. As of Dec 31 2017, the company owned or operated primarily in partnership with physicians, a portfolio of 124 surgical facilities comprised of 106 ASCs and 18 surgical hospitals across 32 states.

Tenet Healthcare Corporation

Tenet Healthcare is a healthcare services company. Through its subsidiaries, partnerships and joint ventures, including USPI Holding Company, Inc., the company operates hospitals, surgical hospitals and outpatient centers. In addition, the company's Conifer Holdings, Inc. (Conifer) subsidiary provides healthcare business process services in the areas of hospital and physician revenue cycle management and care solutions to healthcare systems, as well as individual hospitals, physician practices, self-insured organizations, health plans and other entities. The company has three reportable segments: Hospital Operations and other; Ambulatory Care; and Conifer.

Universal Health Services Inc. Class B

Universal Health Services owns and operates, through its subsidiaries, acute care hospitals and outpatient facilities and behavioral health care facilities. The company owns and/or operates inpatient facilities and outpatient and other facilities located in several states including, Washington, D.C., the United Kingdom, and Puerto Rico. Services provided by the company's hospitals include general and specialty surgery, internal medicine, obstetrics, emergency room care, radiology, oncology, diagnostic care, coronary care, pediatric services, pharmacy services and/or behavioral health services. The company's reportable operating segments consist of acute care hospital services and behavioral health care services.

Zoetis Inc. Class A

Zoetis is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in the discovery, development, manufacture and commercialization of animal health medicines, vaccines, and diagnostic products with a focus on both livestock and companion animals. The company operates in two segments: the United States and International. The company's main product categories are vaccines, anti-infectives, parasiticides, other pharmaceutical products, dermatology products, medicated feed additives, and animal health diagnostics. The company's other non-pharmaceutical product categories include nutritionals and agribusiness, as well as products and services including biodevices, genetic tests and precision livestock farming.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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