Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Fed Set to Hike 50 bps As Indexes Test SupportWe have warned over the past month that a test of the lows, and possibly a break to new lows, is increasingly likely on the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). This has played-out as we recently made marginal new lows amid additional indiscriminate selling on Tuesday and Friday last week. There is potential for an oversold bounce, but we will need to see back-to-back 80%+ upside volume days or one 90%+ upside volume day on the NYSE in order to have confidence that a major market bottom is in place. Until then, our neutral to bearish outlook at the index level remains appropriate.
Still Waiting for Panic Buying. We will need to see back-to-back 80%+ upside volume days or one 90%+ upside volume day (i.e., panic buying) on the NYSE in order to have confidence that a major bottom is in place. There has been a lot of choppiness and volatility right at support; the market is likely shaking out as many weak hands as possible before staging an oversold bounce. It is also worth noting that several defensive Sectors (Utilities, Staples, Health Care, and Real Estate) have recently succumbed to selling pressure, a sign of capitulation.
Indexes Still At Support. Despite some marginal new lows, the majority of indexes are still testing multi-month supports. Indexes holding at support include the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), Russell 2000 (IWM), Russell 1000 Growth (IWF), Russell 1000 Value (IWD), MSCI ACWI (ACWI), ACWI ex-US (ACWX), and EM (EEM). Despite the potential for oversold bounces, we expect any strength to be short-lived and we are still neutral to bearish as long as these indexes are below their respective resistance levels. We also cannot rule out the potential for support violations... see charts below and pages 3-4.
Big Picture Trends. High yield spreads are widening again after being unable to narrow below our critical 375 bps threshold; this remains a major concern. Financials (XLF) and banks (KRE) are still a big problem with downtrends intact. The 10-year Treasury yield is back at 3.5-year highs as it tests the key 3.00% level. On a more positive note, equal-weighted Discretionary (RCD) is trading at 2-month RS highs... see page 5.
Calumet Specialty Product Partners is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is an independent producer of hydrocarbon products in North America. In its specialty products segment, the company processes crude oil and other feedstocks into a variety of customized lubricating oils, white mineral oils, solvents, petrolatums and waxes. The company's specialty products are sold to customers who purchase them as raw material components for basic industrial, consumer and automotive goods. In its fuel products segment, the company processes crude oil into fuel and fuel-related products, including gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, asphalt and heavy fuel oils, and resells purchased crude oil to third party customers.
Cenovus Energy is in the business of development, production and marketing of crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids ("NGLs") in Canada with refining operations in the U.S. Co. operates in two business segments: Upstream, which includes Co.'s development and production of crude oil, NGLs in Canada, is organized into two operations: Oil sands and conventional; and Refining and Marketing, which is focused on the refining of crude oil products into petroleum and chemical products at two refineries located in the U.S. This segment also markets Co.'s crude oil and natural gas, as well as third-party purchases and sales of product.
CNO Financial Group is a holding company for a group of insurance companies. The company's Bankers Life segment underwrites, markets and distributes Medicare supplement insurance, interest-sensitive life insurance, life insurance, fixed annuities and long-term care insurance products. The company's Washington National segment underwrites, markets and distributes supplemental health and life insurance to middle-income consumers at home and at the worksite. The company's Colonial Penn segment markets primarily graded benefit and simplified issue life insurance directly to customers in the senior middle-income market through television advertising, direct mail, the internet and telemarketing.
CVR Energy is a holding company. The company is engaged in the petroleum refining and nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing industries through its holdings in CVR Refining, LP (CVR Refining) and CVR Partners, LP (CVR Partners). CVR Refining is an independent petroleum refiner and marketer of transportation fuels. CVR Partners produces and markets nitrogen fertilizers in the form of urea ammonium nitrate and ammonia. The company's segments include: Petroleum, which includes refineries located in Coffeyville, KS and Wynnewood, OK and supporting logistics assets in the region; and Nitrogen Fertilizer, which includes nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing facilities located in Coffeyville, KS and East Dubuque, IL.
Delek US Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in the downstream energy business focused on petroleum refining, the transportation, storage and wholesale distribution of crude oil, intermediate and refined products and convenience store retailing. The company's segments are: refining, which processes crude oil and other feedstocks for the manufacture of transportation motor fuels; logistics, which gathers, transports and stores crude oil and markets, distributes, transports and stores refined products; and retail, which includes the operations of Alon USA Energy, Inc.'s convenience store sites located primarily in central and West Texas and New Mexico.
Electricite et Eaux De Madagascar SA Formerly known as Viktoria Invest SA. Viktoria Invest SA, formerly Electricite et Eaux de Madagascar SA, is a France-based holding company engaged in the hotel industry. The Company is divided into five main sectors: the hotel industry, the wood industry, wines, real estate and casinos. In the hotel sector, the Company runs hotels in Paris and Hong Kong, under the brand name Victoria Hotels and Resorts, through the subsidiaries: Victoria Angkor and Victoria Angkor Estate. In the wood and paper industry, it owns a minority stake in Groupe Gascogne. Its real estate activities are primarily carried out in Paris through SAIP, SNC Paris Croix des Petits Champs and Les Vergers. In the casino sector, it holds a minority stake in Societe Francaise de Casinos. It also owns minority stakes in Tokaj Lencses Dulo Kft and in Tokaj Hetszolo, the Hungarian wine producers.
Madison Pacific Properties is engaged in owning, developing and operating industrial and commercial real estate properties located in British Columbia. As of Dec 31 2010, Co.'s property portfolio was comprised of interests in 1,152,358 sq. ft. of net rentable area of industrial properties, 190,383 sq.ft. of net rentable area of retail/highway commercial properties, and 59,080 sq.ft. of net rentable area of office property for a combined total of 1,401,821 sq. ft.
Murphy USA is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company's business consists primarily of the marketing of retail motor fuel products and convenience merchandise through its retail stores. The company's retail stores are located in the Southeast, Southwest and Midwest United States. The company's business also includes certain product supply and wholesale assets, including product distribution terminals and pipeline positions. The company purchases fuel from oil companies, independent refiners, and other marketers, and it sells fuel to its customers. In addition to the motor fuel sold at the company's stores, its stores carry a selection of snacks, beverages, tobacco products and non-food merchandise.
Encana is an energy producer that is focused on developing its multi-basin portfolio of oil, natural gas liquids (NGL) and natural gas producing plays. The company's reportable segments are: Canadian Operations, which includes the exploration for, development of, and production of oil, NGLs, natural gas and other related activities within Canada; USA Operations, which includes the exploration for, development of, and production of natural gas, oil and NGLs and other related activities within the U.S.; and Market Optimization activities are managed by the Midstream, Marketing & Fundamentals team, which is primarily responsible for the sale of the company's proprietary production to third party customers.
PBF Energy is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged as an independent petroleum refiner and supplier of unbranded transportation fuels, heating oil, petrochemical feedstocks, lubricants and other petroleum products in the U.S. The company operates in two business segments: refining, which the company produces a variety of products at each of its refineries such as gasoline, ultra-low-sulfur diesel, heating oil, jet fuel, lubricants, petrochemicals and asphalt; and logistics, which through its PBF Logistics LP subsidiary, the company owns or leases, operates, develops and acquires crude oil and refined petroleum products terminals, pipelines, storage facilities and similar logistics assets.
Phillips 66 is an energy manufacturing and logistics company with midstream, chemicals, refining, and marketing and specialties businesses. The company's segments include: Midstream, which provides crude oil and refined petroleum product transportation, terminaling and processing services, as well as natural gas and natural gas liquids transportation, storage, processing and marketing services; Chemicals, which manufactures and markets petrochemicals and plastics on a worldwide basis; Refining, which refines crude oil and other feedstocks into petroleum products; and Marketing and Specialties, which purchases for resale and markets refined petroleum products, mainly in the United States and Europe.
Suncor Energy is an energy company. Co.'s operations include oil sands development and upgrading, onshore and offshore oil and gas production, petroleum refining, and product marketing under the Petro-Canada brand. Co.'s segments include: oil sands, which develop and produce synthetic crude oil and related products through the recovery and upgrading of bitumen; exploration and production, which include offshore activity, and the exploration and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids; and refining and marketing, which include the refining of crude oil products, and the distribution and marketing of these and other purchased products, as well as a lubricants plant.
Valero Energy is an international manufacturer and marketer of transportation fuels and petrochemical products. The company's segments include: Refining, which includes its refining operations, the associated marketing activities, and logistics assets that support its refining operations; Ethanol, which includes its ethanol operations, the associated marketing activities, and logistics assets that support its ethanol operations; and Renewable Diesel, which includes the operations of its joint ventture, Diamond Green Diesel Holdings LLC, which owns and operates a renewable diesel plant in Norco, LA.
Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.
Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.
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