Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 48.09 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Up and to the Right

We continue to observe the market broadening out into the Cyclical areas of the economy. Our outlook remains bullish and we believe the trajectory is up and to the right. As we indicated in last week's Compass, a bullish reversal in the 10-year Treasury provides evisdence of an improving economy and the recent rotations into smid-caps, Financials/banks, Consumer Discretionary, Transportation, Manufacturing, Materials, and Energy Sectors -- which in turn has resulted in improved breadth. These types of Sector rotations are what healthy bull markets are made of.

Sector Relative Strength Rankings & Weighting Recommendations. While Technology and Communications remain longer-term leadership, they have recently taken a back seat as cyclical value Sectors play catch-up. Sectors enjoying price and RS improvement include Financials (Banks and Thrfits remain the weakest area within Financials. ), Consumer Discretionary, Transportation, Manufacturing, Materials, and Energy. For the past several months we suggested that our bullish outlook could be at risk if we saw price and RS breakdowns within Financials and Energy; now that both Sectors have improved substantially, we can add it to our growing list of reasons to be bullish... see pages 3-4.

10-Year Treasury Yield Reversing Higher; However it still remains in a confined trading range between .50 and .95. We would view a decisive break above the .95 level bullish and indicate that investors believe that the economic recovery is truly gaining a foothold. ... see chart below and page 4.

Despite Cyclical value areas of the Market improving, the Banks and thrifts remain inside the bear cave on a RS basis but continue to develop bullish ascending triangles. We believe this area of the market may have the greatest upside if the 10-year were to trend higher similar to the 2016 10-year reversal
Underlyings
Alto Ingredients Inc

Pacific Ethanol is a producer and marketer of low-carbon renewable fuels. The company's segments include: Production Segment and Marketing Segment. In its Production Segment, the company produces ethanol, specialty alcohols and co-products at its production facilities. The company produces ethanol co-products at its production facilities such as wet distillers grains, dried distillers grains with solubles, wet and dry corn gluten feed, corn gluten meal, and corn oil. In its Marketing Segment, the company markets ethanol, specialty alcohols and co-products produced by its facilities and markets ethanol produced by third parties. The company also markets its distillers grains and other feed co-products to dairies and feedlots.

Commercial Metals Company

Commercial Metals, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, recycles and markets steel and metal products, related materials and services. The company has four reportable segments: Americas Recycling, which processes scrap metals for use as a raw material by the company and other manufacturers of new metal products; Americas Mills, which operates electric arc furnace (EAF) mini mills, EAF micro mills, rerolling mill, scrap metal shredders, and scrap metal processing facilities; Americas Fabrication, which includes warehouses that sell or rent products for the installation of concrete; and International Mill, which consists of an EAF mini mill, recycling and fabrication operations located in Poland.

Green Plains Inc.

Green Plains is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is an ethanol producer. The company has four operating segments: ethanol production, which includes the production of ethanol, distillers grains and corn oil; agribusiness and energy services, which includes grain handling and storage, commodity marketing and merchant trading for company-produced and third-party ethanol, distillers grains, corn oil, natural gas and other commodities; food and ingredients, which includes cattle feeding and food-grade corn oil operations; and partnership, which includes fuel storage and transportation services.

Ingevity Corporation

Ingevity is a manufacturer of specialty chemicals and activated carbon materials. The company reports in two business segments: Performance Materials, which manufactures and sells hardwood-based, chemically activated carbon products, produced through a technical and specialized process primarily for use in gasoline vapor emission control systems in cars, trucks, motorcycles and boats; and Performance Chemicals, which is comprised of four application areas (pavement technologies, oilfield technologies, industrial specialties, and engineered polymers), develops, manufactures, and sells a range of specialty chemicals primarily derived from co-products of the kraft pulping process and caprolactone.

Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co.

Reliance Steel & Aluminum is a metals service center company. The company provides metals processing services and distributes a line of metal products, including alloy, aluminum, brass, copper, carbon steel, stainless steel, titanium and specialty steel products, to its customers in a range of industries, including general manufacturing, non-residential construction (including infrastructure), transportation (rail, truck trailer and shipbuilding), aerospace and defense, energy (oil and gas), electronics and semiconductor fabrication, and heavy industry (agricultural, construction and mining equipment). The company also services the auto industry, primarily through its toll processing operations.

REX American Resources Corporation

REX American Resources is a holding company. Through a wholly owned subsidiary REX I.P., LLC, the company entered into a joint venture with Hytken HPGP LLC to file and defend patents for eSteam technology relating to heavy oil and oil sands production methods. The company has two reportable segments, ethanol and by-products, which is a renewable fuel source produced by processing corn and other biomass through a fermentation process that creates combustible alcohol that can be used as an additive or replacement to fossil fuel based gasoline; and refined coal, which applies separate chemicals to convert feedstock coal into refined coal.

Schnitzer Steel Industries Inc. Class A

Schnitzer Steel Industries is engaged as a recycler of ferrous and nonferrous scrap metal, including end-of-life vehicles, and a manufacturer of finished steel products. The company has two segments: Auto and Metals Recycling, which acquires and recycles ferrous and nonferrous scrap metal for sale to foreign and domestic metal producers, processors and brokers, and procures salvaged vehicles and sells serviceable used auto parts from these vehicles through a network of self-service auto parts stores; and Cascade Steel and Scrap, which produces a range of finished steel long products using ferrous recycled scrap metal and other raw materials.

Steel Dynamics Inc.

Steel Dynamics is a steel producer and metal recycler. The company manufactures and sells steel products, processes and sells recycled ferrous and nonferrous metals, and fabricates and sells steel joists and deck products. The company's segments are: Steel, which produces steel from ferrous scrap and scrap substitutes, utilizing casting, automated rolling mills and several downstream steel coating and bar processing lines, and Iron Dynamics; metals recycling, which involves the purchase, processing, and resale of ferrous and nonferrous scrap metals into reusable forms and grades; and steel fabrication, which produces steel building components, including steel joists, girders, trusses, and steel deck.

Worthington Industries Inc.

Worthington Industries is a metals manufacturing company, focused on steel processing and manufactured metal products. The company operates three segments: Steel Processing, which buys coils of steel from integrated steel mills and mini-mills and processes them to customer specifications; Pressure Cylinders, which manufactures and sells filled and unfilled pressure cylinders, tanks, hand torches, well water and expansion tanks, and oil and gas equipment with accessories and related products for end-use market applications; and Engineered Cabs, which designs and manufactures custom-engineered open and enclosed cabs and operator stations and custom fabrications and packaging for mobile equipment.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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