Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Upgrading Communications, Downgrading StaplesIn our January 10th Compass, we discussed that a break above 3910 on the S&P 500 would signal a tradable rally, with 4100-4165 our target, which is the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range. We believe equities are still in the midst of a rally/short squeeze, but that the rally is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area.
Upgrading Communications to Market Weight. We have been underweight Communications (XLC, EWCO) since November of 2021, a period when the XLC underperformed the SPX by 20%. We now see signs of price and RS bottoms, with RS on the XLC reversing topside its 15-month downtrend. As a result, we are upgrading Communications to market weight -- add exposure. We view this as a positive signal for the broad market and a sign that the lows are in, considering the Communications Sector had been downside leadership throughout the bear market... see chart below and page 3.
Downgrading Consumer Staples to Market Weight. We are down
News is a media and information services company. The company comprises businesses across a range of media, including news and information services, subscription video services in Australia, book publishing and digital real estate services, that are distributed under brands, including The Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, The Australian, Herald Sun, The Sun, The Times, HarperCollins Publishers, Foxtel, FOX SPORTS Australia, realestate.com.au, realtor.com?, talkSPORT and others. The company distributes its content to consumers across platforms consisting of print and television, as well as digital platforms including websites, applications for mobile devices and tablets, social media and e-book devices.
S&P Global is a provider of transparent and independent ratings, benchmarks, analytics and data to the capital and commodity markets worldwide. The company's segments include: S&P Global Ratings, which provides credit ratings, research and analytics; S&P Global Market Intelligence, which provides multi-asset-class data, research and analytical capabilities that integrate cross-asset analytics and desktop services; S&P Global Platts, which provides information and benchmark prices for the commodity and energy markets; and S&P Dow Jones Indices, which provides a variety of valuation and index benchmarks for investment advisors, wealth managers and institutional investors.
Shaw Communications is a communications and media company. Co. has four operating segments: consumer, which provides cable telecommunications and satellite video services to residential customers; business network services, which provides data networking, cable telecommunications, satellite video and fleet tracking services to businesses and public sector entities; business infrastructure services, which provides data centre colocation, cloud technology and managed Information Technology solutions to businesses; and media, which provides programming content.
Thomson Reuters provides source of news and information. Co. operates three business: Financial & Risk, a provider of news, information and analytics, enabling transactions and connecting communities of trading, investment, financial and corporate professionals, as well as a provider of regulatory and operational risk management solutions; Legal, a provider of online and print information, decision tools, software and services that support legal, investigation, business and government professionals; and Tax & Accounting, a provider of integrated tax compliance and accounting information, software and services for professionals in accounting firms, corporations, law firms and government.
Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.
Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.
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