Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Buying Climax Signals Possible Major Bottom; Downgrading Real Estate to Market WeightThe commodity (Energy and Materials) and defensive (Staples, Utilities, and Health Care) Sectors remain in RS uptrends and continue to be our favorite areas to invest. Meanwhile, the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 remain bearish, though there is some hope that this past Friday's buying climax (92% advancing volume on the NYSE) could signal that a major bottom is in place.
Buying Climax. Since late April we have discussed how we were seeing capitulatory selling in the form of back-to-back 80%+ downside volume days on the NYSE, and that we would need to see back-to-back 80%+ up volume days or one 90%+ up volume day in order to have confidence that a low is in. We finally got a 91% up volume day on Friday, and if last week's low of 3858 on the S&P 500 holds that could very well mark the low of this correction. If it does not hold, then all bets are off and we go back to a bearish outlook.
Bottom Watch. In order to have more confidence that a major low has been established, we need to see (1) the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) reverse its 6-week downtrend, and (2) steep RS uptrend violations for Utilities (XLU) and Staples (XLP). We will also want to see more 80%+ or 90%+ NYSE upside volume days, and the US dollar and 10-yr Treasury yield get/stay below $94 and 3%, respectively... see charts below and page 2.
Actionable Industry ETFs: XME, IEO, PBJ, and PPH... see page 9.
EM and International Markets. MSCI EM (EEM) and developed int'l (EFA) remain bearish -- avoid/underweight... see page 10.
Actionable International ETFs: TUR, KSA, QAT, and DXJ... see page 11.
Electricite et Eaux De Madagascar SA Formerly known as Viktoria Invest SA. Viktoria Invest SA, formerly Electricite et Eaux de Madagascar SA, is a France-based holding company engaged in the hotel industry. The Company is divided into five main sectors: the hotel industry, the wood industry, wines, real estate and casinos. In the hotel sector, the Company runs hotels in Paris and Hong Kong, under the brand name Victoria Hotels and Resorts, through the subsidiaries: Victoria Angkor and Victoria Angkor Estate. In the wood and paper industry, it owns a minority stake in Groupe Gascogne. Its real estate activities are primarily carried out in Paris through SAIP, SNC Paris Croix des Petits Champs and Les Vergers. In the casino sector, it holds a minority stake in Societe Francaise de Casinos. It also owns minority stakes in Tokaj Lencses Dulo Kft and in Tokaj Hetszolo, the Hungarian wine producers.
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