Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Still Expecting Weakness; Many Sector Weighting ChangesWe maintain our near-term bullish outlook on the S&P 500 (SPX) and Russell 2000 (IWM), which has remained in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week (11/19/25-11/25/25) when we went to neutral. We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6780-6824 on SPX and $255-$257 on IWM continue to hold. With that said, we continue to see deterioration in market dynamics that has us concerned of a deeper pullback, likely to 6720-6776, 6690, or 6480-6520 on SPX, but the 6780-6824 support level would need to break to give us confidence that the pullback has begun. Our intermediate-term bullish outlook has been in place since our 5/14/25 Compass. We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term outlook, and recommend buying pullbacks, as long as market dynamics remain constructive and the SPX is above 6480-6520 and IWM is above $245. SPX supports include 6824, 6780-6800, 6720-6770, 6690, and 6480-6520.
Near-Term Headwind
Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.
Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.
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