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Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

S&P 500 Testing 4165-4200 Resistance

In our 4/3/23 ETF Pathfinder we noted that a test of 4165-4200 was in play on the S&P 500, and it made a high of 4169 last week. We still believe 4165-4200 will cap upside in 2023 -- with a reach to 4300-4325 also possible -- but considering limited upside, we recommend shifting toward defensives including Utilities (XLU, RYU), Consumer Staples (XLP), Health Care (XLV, PPH), and gold miners (GDX). Downside targets on the S&P 500 continue to be at the December 2022 lows (3765) and/or the 2022 lows (3490).

Big Picture Trends. The Russell 2000 (IWM) is consolidating between resistance at $180 and support at $170; the big concern is that RS on the IWM is at 3-year lows. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) remains constructive, but we are watching support at $313; a breakdown would mean a pullback has begun. The 10-year Treasury yield has held above key support at 3.35-3.4%, but both the 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields are testing short-term resistance at 3.63% and 3.82%. The U.S. dollar (DXY) is testing support at $101. WTI crude oil remains below $82 resistance while the Bloomberg Commodity index (DJP) appears to be getting rejected at major $32.50 resistance... see charts below and page 2.
Actionable Industry ETFs: GDX, PPH, XHE, and BITQ... see page 9.
EM and Int'l Markets. Remain overweight/buy pullbacks on MSCI EAFE (EFA). Remain underweight MSCI EM (EEM) and watch support at $37-$37.50... see page 10.
Actionable International ETFs: VGK, EWU, EWL, EWQ, EPOL, EWW, KSA, and UAE... see pages 11-12.