Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Upgrading SPX/QQQ/IWM Outlook to Bullish; Buy the Dips Market; Downgrading StaplesWe are upgrading our outlook to bullish on the S&P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 (IWM). Market dynamics have improved considerably ever since the major bullish false breakdowns at 6480-6520 on the SPX, 24,000 on Nasdaq futures (NQ), and $245 on the IWM. Everything that we see suggests bulls remain firmly in control, so we want to be buying any pullbacks for the foreseeable future to the 20-day MA or 21-day EMAs on SPX, QQQ, and IWM.
Risk-On. In addition to breakouts to all-time highs on SPX, QQQ, and IWM, additional improvements in market dynamics that supports our bullish outlook include: (1) High yield spreads are back below 320bps. (2) The U.S. dollar (DXY) remains below $100.25-$100.80 resistance and also violated its 21-day EMA support. (3) U.S. interest rate volatility (MOVE index) fell back below the crucial 85 level. (4) Semiconductors remain leadership, with the SMH ETF holding above
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