Analyst Pin-board Banking sector – Update on the banking system’s liquidity and credit growth
- The recent rally of interbank interest rates does reflect a less abundant liquidity. We expect the tension to be relieved in the third quarter when the USD forward contracts expire and the growth momentum of deposit is normalized.
- The private commercial banks are experiencing robust growth in credit, reaching their initial limits in the second quarter. Meanwhile, credit growth of several state-owned banks has lagged. LDR constraint might be a cause.
- Based on the expectations of the pandemic’s impact and timing of the quota lift approval, we forecast that large private banks will achieve robust credit growth in 2Q2021, led by TCB.
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