Analyst Pin-board: HND – Outstanding 3Q among thermal power plants
While we have maintained our view since last year that La Nina’s comeback will cause thermal power plants to have a difficult time in 2020 and 2021, HND stands out as an exception, reporting high earnings quarters after quarters. 3Q2020, too, witnessed HND’s earnings surging 88% YoY despite low volume and unfavorable conditions on the Competitive Generation Market (CGM). Until the end of 2020, we are going to keep our target price at VND 20,800 (plus a VND 1,200 cash dividend expected in the next twelve months), implying a total upside of 22%. By the end of 2020, we will evaluate HND’s potential in terms of volume growth, earnings, debt payment and most importantly its PPA, in order to see if the company’s current advantages can be prolonged fromm 2021 onwards. The hydrological conditions are not going to favor thermal power companies for the next couple of years.
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