Although the outlook for HSG’s business result in FY20-21 is bright in terms of selling volume, increasing competition and downsides risks in HRC price can harm the segment’s profitability. For 1Q/FY20-21, HSG’s gross margin is better than average, although lower than 4Q/FY19-20, as HRC prices still increased in last two month. Besides, its selling volume in 1Q is still good as export volume remains strong, meanwhile, domestic consumption can increase due to the demand to repair houses and factories. We come up with a fair value of VND 16,800 per share, which is based on P/E, with a target multiple of 7.0x, and FCFF methods (exit EV/EBITDA of 6.3x, WACC of 11.9%). We recommend NEUTRAL for this stock in the Intermediate-term.
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