Viet Dragon Securities - Analyst Pin-board Livestock market – Live hog price to recover from 4Q21

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Viet Dragon Securities

Son Tran

Analyst Pin-board Livestock market – Live hog price to recover from 4Q21

The downward trend in live hog prices accelerated in 3Q21 as the impact of strict social distancing in the South of Vietnam caused live hog prices to drop by 40% QoQ in 3Q. With production cost of around 35,000 VND/kg, even companies with fully integrated value chain are recording a loss of 25% on production cost.
We expect pork demand in the South to improve from 4Q21 driven by (1) the opening of traditional markets and the resumption of on-site restaurant chains from Oct 28^th, (2) accelerating the vaccination program for children according to the school opening schedule and (3) the recovery of inter-provincial transportation.
DBC's 3Q21 revenue reached VND 2,682 Bn (USD 116 Mn, +5% YoY) and PBT of VND 169 Bn (USD 7.3 Mn, -61% YoY). In 9M21, the company completed 64% and 88% of revenue and PBT guidance, respectively.
We expect that live hog price will bottom in Oct 28^th, DBC's profit in 4Q21 will reach positive QoQ recovery as live hog price is increasing toward the company's production cost. Besides, we expect the recovery trend to extend in 1Q22 on the back of buoyant pork consumption in the New Year holiday.

28/10/2021 6 EN

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Viet Dragon Securities

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Analysts

Son Tran

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Analyst Pin-board Livestock market – Live hog price to recover from 4Q21

EFFORT TO MAINTAIN GAINS

MSB – Shrinking non-interest income and deteriorating asset quality

TESTING THE 1,585-POINT AREA

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