·         1Q/2022 net revenue of MCM arrived at VND675 bn (+8.6% YoY), supported by the increase of both selling volume and average selling price (ASP). 1Q/2022 NPAT of MCM was VND86 bn (+73.1% YoY), driven by cost optimization and low-base performance of 2021. We expect that NPAT growth in the next three quarters will be lower than the result of 1Q2022 due to 9M2021 high-base performance, though stay positive.

·         We conservatively forecast that MCM will show a one-digit growth in selling volume for the whole year of 2022 due to the fierce-and-fierce competition in Vietnam dairy industry. Equipped by the expected lower SG&A/Sales ratio compared to 2021, 2022 NPAT growth of MCM is expected to be higher than the growth of revenue.

·         MCM shares price has strongly decreased since 4Q2021 because investors concern on the delay of capacity upgrade project. Currently, its trailing P/E ratio is trading at around 17-months average P/E ratio (Figure 6). Therefore, in the background of long-term potential growth when MCM completely upgraded production capacity, we recommend investors ACCUMULATE this stock.