·         We maintain a bright look on QNS’s business results in FY2021, driven by the leading role of sugar segment to lift the company’s overall income. On the back of global sugar production deficit and prospect of tax barrier imposed on five ASEAN countries excluding Thailand, we expect Vietnam’s domestic sugar price will keep its solid price hike in 2H-FY21.

·         In 3Q-FY21, we estimate QNS’s revenue at VND 2,092 Bn (USD 91 Mn, +13% YoY) and NPAT at VND 279 Bn (USD 12 Mn, +19% YoY). Premised by sugar price increase of 43% YoY, sugar segment will maintain the earning pillar with VND 84 Bn (USD 4 Mn) in NPAT, accounting for 30% of the company’s total NPAT.

·         FY2021 estimated revenue and NPAT to be VND 7,607 Bn (or USD 329 Mn, +17% YoY) and VND 1,275 Bn (or USD 55 Mn, +21% YoY) respectively, completing 95% revenue target and 140% NPAT target. Correspondent 2021 EPS will be VND 4,147, and 2021 forward PER will be 11.7x. In which, we estimate sugar segment to reach VND 1,909 Bn revenue (USD 83 Mn, +92% YoY) and VND 446 Bn NPAT (USD 19 Mn), versus VND -9 Bn (USD -0.4 Mn) in FY2020.

·         Based on the 50%:50% valuation mix of DCF and SoTP, we recommend to ACCUMULATE QNS share at TP of VND 53,400, equivalent to expected return of 16% with 6% cash dividend yield.