Analyst Pin-board Retails Sector Outlook
Having quickly recovered in a V-shaped manner since the social distancing ended, total retail sales of goods remained fairly resilient despite the second Covid-19 outbreak in August 2020 (figure 1), ending the year with an annual growth of 7%. Likewise, the consumer confidence index has been relatively optimistic. This solid recovery bodes well for aggregate household consumption demand which seems to remain intact. Moreover, we believe that the consumption demand should extend its improvement in 2021 as household disposable income will likely recover on the back of the decline to pre-pandemic levels of the unemployment rate. Going forward, the solid growth of the post-covid economy, coupled with a high rate of household consumption to GDP supported by a rapidly growing middle class, will remain the growth engine for consumer spending and thereby the retail industry.
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