Analyst Pin-board The implications of the currency manipulation designation
In its semi-annual foreign exchange rate report issued 16 Dec 2020, the US Treasury labelled Vietnam as a currency manipulator. To be specific, the US Treasury found that Vietnam met all three criteria under the 2015 Act over the four quarters through Jun 2020, including: (1) US$20 billion threshold for bilateral trade surplus with the US; (2) 2% of GDP threshold for current account surplus; and (3) 2% of GDP threshold for net purchases of foreign currency. Not surprisingly, we already warned investors that this is a potential risk for Vietnam. In this update, we will discuss about what will happen next and possible scenarios regarding to this event.
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