Analyst Pin-board Updates on monetary market in Aug 2022
- Credit growth slowed down in 3Q22.
- The pressure to loosen the credit room is strong, the SBV may have to be more flexible in granting credit room.
- Lending interest rates will increase more strongly in the second half of the year.
Credit growth slowed down in 3Q22
According to the State Bank, credit growth by the end of June 2022 reached 9.4% compared to the beginning of the year, higher than the growth rate of 6.4% in the same period last year. Monthly movements showed that credit accelerated sharply until the end of June, but then slowed down significantly because the State Bank has not yet granted a credit room. As of 15 Aug 2022, credit increased by 9.6% compared to the beginning of the year, in nearly 1 and a half months, credit only increased by 0.3 percentage points, which is quite low compared to the average growth rate of 1.6%/month in the first half of the year. At the end of Jul 2022, the State Bank said that it still kept the credit growth target of 14% while the yoy credit growth at the end of June was 17%. Based on the orientation of the State Bank, the credit balance from now to the end of the year is only about VND457,450 billion, which means less than half of the credit demand during 8M22.
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