Analyst Pin-board Vietnam’s exports in 8M20: What are the sources of growth?
Widening trade surplus supports the balance of payments
Vietnam’s trade surplus expanded to US$5.0 bn in Aug 2020, a record high vs. a surplus of US$3.5 bn in the same period last year. In Aug 2020, exports continued to grow at 7.1% yoy (vs. 8.2% in July) while imports rose at 1.6% yoy (vs. -3.7% yoy in July). In 8M20, exports rose 2.2% yoy while imports dipped -2.9% yoy, leading to a record trade surplus of US$13.7 bn in 8M20. We believe the record high trade surplus could offset the impact of weaker remittance and FDI inflows on the balance of payments (BOP). According to Fitch Solutions forecast, Vietnam’s current account surplus is set to narrow to 3.7% of GDP in 2020, down from 4.9% in 2019.
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