Analyst Pin-board We live in the most chaotic, hard-to-predict macroeconomic times in decades
- Inflation today compared to the 1980s is a completely different animal and the situation is so beyond what the various central banks can do.
- In the US, social and political disharmony is at the highest level since the onset of the Civil War. With the world suffering various economic and geopolitical challenges, it does not paint a great picture for the near future.
- Generally, global stocks have had a phenomenal run since 2008-09 but are overdone now.
US and Global Equities are fighting three battles simultaneously – slowing growth, higher costs and rising interest rates. However, a fourth – monetary conditions are also tightening. The interactions between the dollar, credit spreads, interbank funding and hedging costs are just as important especially after a period of insatiable risk appetite.
According to MSCI, since 2007 equity returns have been pretty good, especially in developed markets driven by the US (Figure 1).
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