Analyst Pin-board: Will be there a recession?
Financial investors are obsessed with the US inverted yield curve, seen historically as an early indicator of an upcoming recession in next 6-24 months. Since 1960, bond investors have been right about predicting recessions. Currently, 3-month treasury bonds are yielding more than 10-year ones. Last year, there was an inversion between the US 5-year and 2-year treasury bonds, then between the US 10-year and 2-year ones. Besides, the US economy is running at full-capacity as the unemployment rate is well below the threshold of 4%.
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