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ANV – AM Q3/2025 – Ideal circumstances under US tariff fluctuations

• In a meeting with businesses on October 11, 2025, ANV announced business results with revenue in 9M2025 estimated at over VND 4,800 billion and PBT estimated at VND 850 billion. Since then, revenue in Q3/2025 will reach over VND 1,900 billion (+45% YoY) and profit in Q3/2025 is estimated at VND 336 billion (up 9 times YoY; -8% QoQ).
• The company plans that PBT in 2026/2027 is estimated at VND 1,300 billion and VND 1,500 billion with the main markets in the US and Brazil. The strategy of shifting the product structure from pangasius to Tilapia is being promoted, with the revenue contribution ratio between the two segments expected to be flexibly adjusted from 7:3 to 6:4 depending on each period, in order to diversify risks and take advantage of global competitive advantages.
• Although ANV has not disclosed details on the gross profit margin and net profit margin of the Tilapia segment, based on reasonable assumptions from industry data, we estimate these indicators at around 43% and 33%, respectively. With a maximum Tilapia production capacity of about 48,000 tons (equal to 50% total imported volume of US imports) and an average selling price of 5 USD/kg, the revenue potential from this segment can be up to 6,200 billion VND, bringing an estimated net profit of 2,000 billion VND, making an important contribution to the sustainable growth of the business.
• US President Donald Trump's move to announce additional tariffs of up to 100% on products imported from China starting in November 2025 has opened up a "golden opportunity" for ANV to boost Tilapia exports to the US market, where products from China – the main competitor – will be subject to a record tariff burden. Moreover, if ANV skillfully takes advantage of this period to strengthen its brand position and expand its market share, it can still maintain a long-term competitive advantage even if tariff barriers to China are eased in the future.
• With positive 9M/2025 business results, we expect profit in 2025 to reach about VND 1,000-1,100 billion thanks to tariff information to help ANV operate at full capacity in the remaining months.