FREE

APRIL 2026 MONTHLY MARKET MONITOR: AWAITING THE EAST WIND

As we enter April, the market appears to have factored in a slowdown in growth and ongoing high interest rates. Meanwhile, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is reaching a crucial point regarding the actions of the involved parties.
Risks are still high, but global asset movements suggest a prolonged, controlled shock rather than a widespread loss of confidence like in previous crises. Major equity indices have seen minor corrections, the US dollar is strengthening, and bond yields are increasing as markets lower their expectations for monetary easing. In this context, the energy shock from the Strait of Hormuz is likely to lead to stagflation, with inflation rising and growth slowing, especially in energy-importing countries. This situation reduces the chances of a quick market recovery in the near future.
However, the outlook isn’t completely negative. For the US, inflation, war costs, and political time limits will likely restrict the potential for a long conflict, reducing the chances of extreme scenarios. For Vietnam, the policy direction is now clearer, emphasizing growth support while ensuring macroeconomic stability. Efforts to enhance institutional frameworks, minimize policy delays, and ensure balanced monetary management lay a crucial foundation for sustaining medium-term market expectations.
In the near term, the outlook for 1Q2026 earnings is positive, with projected profit growth of 38% YoY in VDSC’s coverage list. Growth is mainly driven by domestic demand and the investment cycle, especially in the banking and retail sectors. In addition, sectors that benefit from commodity prices and geopolitical events are more likely to exceed market expectations.
The VN-Index may fluctuate between 1,584 and 2,042 points in the medium term, representing a change of -5.4% to +21.9% from end-March levels. In other words, the market isn't ready for a quick rebound right now. However, if we see positive developments such as reduced geopolitical tensions, stable energy markets, and effective domestic policies, a renewed market rise is possible.