Banking Sector Q4-2025 Outlook: Sustaining Positive Growth Momentum Despite Persistent Liquidity Pressure and Elevated Funding Costs
• We forecast credit growth for our coverage universe of banks to reach 18.2% YoY in 2025, amid the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV)’s stringent control over the allocation of new credit growth quotas.• Interest rates and NIM: A rise in funding costs is expected to support a modest NIM expansion of approximately 10 bps QoQ, supported by tighter credit supply conditions in Q4-2025.
• Non-performing loan (NPL) ratio: Anticipated to decline by 10–20 bps in the final quarter of 2025; however, provision expenses are projected to remain stable as banks continue to strengthen their provision buffers.
• Q4-2025 PBT for the coverage portfolio is forecasted to grow 15% YoY, resulting in full-year 2025F PBT growth of 15% YoY — in line with expectations set at the beginning of the year.
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