Report

Analyst Pin-board DPM – Weak domestic urea demand and falling selling prices to put pressure on profits in 2H2022

  • DPM estimates a consumption volume of 400 thousand tons of urea in 1H2022, of which 160 thousand tons were exported. We see that domestic production has fallen sharply, which could be attributed to high urea prices. Meanwhile, the NPK segment recorded a consumption volume of 85 thousand tons, up slightly compared to the same period last year.
  • Selling prices of urea and NPK in 1H2022 were higher by 214% YoY and 174%, respectively. However, compared to 1Q2022, the urea price has decreased in 2Q2022 while NPK still went up slightly.
  • The high urea price has negatively affected the world demand amid Russia has begun to export fertilizer recently. World urea price is currently at USD 500/ton – USD 600/ton FOB compared to the peak of USD 900-1,000/ton in 1Q2022. We believe that DPM's profit in 2H2022 will gradually decrease due to weak domestic demand and low selling prices.
  • The positive point of DPM is its ability to pay high cash dividends of VND5,000/share for 2021 and VND5,000/share for 2022. Currently, the company has paid VND1,000/share in advance.

For 2022, we forecast DPM's revenue and profit after tax to reach VND16,670 bn (+30.4%) and VND4,366bn (+40,1%). With unfavorable changes in demand and selling price, we lower DPM's target price to VND 44,700/share. At this price, the dividend yield is very attractive

Underlying
Petrovietnam Fertilizer & Chemical JSC

PetroVietnam Fertilizer and Chemicals Corp. PetroVietnam Fertilizer and Chemicals Corporation is a Vietnam-based manufacturer of agricultural chemicals. It manufactures and trades diversified fertilizer products, including urea fertilizers; nitrogenous phosphatic potassic (NPK) fertilizers, liquefied ammonia, as well as other industrial gases and chemicals used for oil and gas exploration and refinery. The Company is also involved in the provision of technical services in fertilizer and petrochemical production.

Provider
Viet Dragon Securities
Viet Dragon Securities

Viet Dragon Securities belongs to top 20 biggest securities companies in terms of chartered capital in Vietnam. With a qualified, dedicated and professional team, a widespread network, advanced technology, diversified products and services, and good relationship with local and foreign institutions, we provide a wide range of services and products to our clients both individuals and institutions, both local and foreign. We commit to provide our clients with promising investment opportunities and a comprehensive and professional financial investment services.

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Analysts
Son Tran

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