DPR - Old fields, new "golden" season
Using the Sum of the Parts (SoTP) method, we have determined DPR’s fair value at VND 52,700 per share, along with a dividend of VND 2,000, implying an expected return of 40%, based on the closing price on December 8th, 2025.Rubber Segment continues to be the stable foundation for DPR
• During 2025–2029, production is expected to remain stable at around 11,800–12,800 tons per year, thanks to consistent replanting at 450–500 hectares per year and productivity maintaining around 1.9–2.0 tons/hectare.
• In terms of pricing, we expect DPR to maintain an average price of around VND 47–50 million per ton during this period, reflecting the global natural rubber price trend staying at an equilibrium level as global supply remains constrained and demand is expected to slow. As a result, this segment could generate VND 200 billion in annual cash flow, supporting the industrial park investment segment.
Industrial Park Brings a New Growth Catalyst for the Medium–Long Term
• Two key projects, namely the Bac Dong Phu Expanded Industrial Park and Nam Dong Phu Expanded Industrial Park, are expected to start generating revenue from 2027 and 2028, with initial leasing rates expected to be around USD 71–72/m².
• Additionally, DPR is expected to record revenue from tree liquidation and compensation for land acquisition at the Tien Hung 1, Tan Lap, and Thuan Phu industrial clusters. Furthermore, according to the 2021–2030 land use plan, a total of 1,621 hectares in Binh Phuoc and 140 hectares in Binh Duong can be converted to other uses, which could provide the company with long-term compensation.
• Financially, we observe that DPR continues to maintain a strong foundation with low leverage. Long-term debt is expected to increase during 2025–2028 to finance industrial park projects.
Risks
• Extreme weather may affect production output, causing fluctuations in rubber supply and prices.
• Slower-than-expected land absorption in industrial parks could impact the company’s cash flow.
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