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External demand weakened sharply in Oct 2022

• Export growth weakened significantly while imports improved slightly from the previous month.
• 2022’s export turnover is estimated at $375-380 billion, up 12-13% over the same period.
• 2022’s import turnover is estimated at $363-366 billion, up 9-10% over the same period.

Exports weakened as expected

According to the official data of the Customs, October’s trade is quite close to the GSO's estimate. Specifically, export and import turnovers reached $30.4 billion and $27.9 billion, respectively, corresponding to the growth rate of 4.9% yoy and 6.7% yoy respectively. Export growth was significantly lower than that of Sep 2022 (+9.9% yoy). Meanwhile, imports had a slight improvement compared to the previous month's import growth (+4.9% yoy). The monthly comparison is mixed, exports improved slightly (+1.9% mom), while imports declined for the 2nd consecutive month (-1.7% mom). By sector, the export growth of the FDI sector continued to weaken in October, while the domestic sector recorded a decrease in export turnover for the second consecutive month.

The trade balance continued to improve, the trade surplus in October 2022 was estimated at $2.5 billion, a 12% lower than the same period last year but up 72.6% compared to the previous month. As a result, the 10-month cumulative trade surplus is estimated at $9.1 billion, higher than the $334 million deficit of the same period last year