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Fertilizer industry – Fertilizer price perspective in 2026

• The average domestic selling price of Urea/NPK/DAP/Potassium fertilizer in 2025 will increase by 17%/25%/3%/15% YoY, respectively. Fertilizer selling prices in 2026 are expected to gradually decrease following the decline in world fertilizer prices. However, we expect domestic Urea/DAP/NPK fertilizer prices (after 5% VAT) to increase by 2%/4%/2% YoY, respectively. The pre-tax selling price of Ure/DAP/NPK decreased slightly by 3%/1%/3% YoY with a gradual increase from Q2/2026. These expectations are based on the following theses:
o Vietnamese selling prices often have a certain lag compared to world selling prices. In addition, the domestic fertilizer supply is concentrated in a number of large enterprises. Therefore, the selling price will be controlled more stably than the world price.
o Demand in Brazil and India is expected to increase thanks to favorable weather (high probability of ENSO Neutral phase in 2026). At the same time, China's continued tightening of exports will be a barrier to prevent fertilizer prices from falling deeply.
o The very high fertilizer price base in 2025 creates momentum for the average price in 2026 to fall sharply.
o Prices of main agricultural products are forecast to increase slightly in 2026 except for coffee prices. However, coffee prices still remain at a high base level compared to 2019-2025.
o We find that fertilizer price forecasts by world organizations often have large delays or errors. Specifically, these organizations have sharply adjusted the projected selling prices of urea, DAP and Potassium for 2025 (up 33%, 45% and 17% respectively), showing the unpredictability of the market and the possibility that the actual price may be higher than the current forecast. (Table 5)
• In fertilizers, we expect DAP fertilizer prices to recover as input costs remain high. The price of input materials such as Sulfur (accounting for 10% of raw material prices) and Ammonia (accounting for 25% of raw material prices), increased by 123%/14% YoY respectively and far exceeded the 9% YoY increase in DAP prices.
o Ammonia prices are expected to decline slightly in 2026 but sulfur prices are expected to grow by 10% due to supply shortages in Russia and high demand from Indonesia and Morocco.
o The scarcity and expensiveness of Sulfur is tightening the profit margins of the Phosphate industry, causing the 'big man' Mosaic to announce the suspension of Super Phosphate production from mid-December 2025. The global supply-demand imbalance is the main reason for the increase in Sulur prices. While demand in Morocco (fertilizer production) and Indonesia (nickel production) soared, supply from Russia fell sharply due to refinery incidents and export restrictions.