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Fertilizer Industry – Fertilizer Price Trends Amid Middle East Tensions

• Middle East tensions are pushing up fertilizer prices, especially in the short term. The extent of the impact depends on the course of the conflict and there are differences between the types of fertilizers. If the war escalates, the increase in oil prices will lead to gas and urea prices, which in turn will have a chain effect on other fertilizers due to the connection with urea fertilizers. However, urea fertilizers are the most affected, while other fertilizers such as phosphate and NPK are less volatile.
• Urea prices have been steadily rising since the Iran-Israel tensions occured and lead to gas costs rising and a 16 percent shortage of urea production supplies from Egypt and Iran. However, compared to the Russia-Ukraine war (2/2022), the impact this time is lower because China has resumed exports and is not yet the peak fertilizer consumption season.
• The selling price of phosphate fertilizers (MAP, DAP, LAS) is expected to increase more slowly than the price of Urea as relatively stable input costs due to the decrease in sulfuric acid prices to partially compensate for the increase in liquid ammonia prices.
• The selling price of NPK has difficulty in increasing the price even though the price of single and dual inputs has increased rapidly. The reason is strong competition from countries such as China and Russia. In addition, from July 1, 2025, the EU's 40% import tariff imposed on Russia will cause Russia to push to other markets such as Vietnam.
• In the short term, Urea fertilizer enterprises such as DCM and DPM have a greater impact on the selling price than DDV, LAS and NPK fertilizer businesses such as BFC.