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Fisheries industry – The seafood industry after the expiration of the tax deferment period

• The 90-day tax deferral from the US has helped reduce pressure on the fisheries industry. By maintaining a synchronous reciprocal tax rate on seafood products of other countries of 10% and China to 145%, the pangasius industry benefits strongly when it accounts all for 11% of the market share of tilapia and does not have to share market share for US pollock when the price of pangasius is equivalent to US pollock. For the shrimp industry, the impact do not change as the tax rate during this tax deferral period of other countries are the same.
• After the tax deferment period, in the scenario of a reciprocal tax of 10% and China at 145%, pangasius export volume will increase by 35% compared to 2024. In the unchanged reciprocal tax scenario with Vietnam of 46%, pangasius export volume through the US decreased by up to 10% after sharing volume for US pollock and occupy market share of tilapia. However, opportunities will open up in the EU market and difficulties in the Chinese market as tilapia is difficult to export to the US.
• For the shrimp industry, if retaliatory tariffs remain unchanged after the suspension period, Vietnam will likely face challenges competing in the U.S. market and may be forced to shift exports to alternative destinations such as the EU and Asean. As other exporters redirect shipments to the U.S., competitive pressure in these markets is expected to ease. Moreover, with global shrimp supply projected to increase by only 2% YoY, selling prices in alternative markets may remain more favorable and competitive for Vietnamese exporters.
• The export volume of pangasius by businesses to the US will depend on their perception of export risks to the US when the tax rate fluctuates greatly. However, we believe that pangasius will still be sought after in the U.S. thanks to the cheapest price among fish besides US pollock in the U.S.