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Fishery industry – Pangasius exports in the 5M2025 is positive and expected to grow in 2H2025

• The export value of the pangasius industry in 5M2025 grew by 6% YoY, reaching USD 805 million as a 5% YoY increase in selling prices and a slight increase in consumption volume of 1% YoY. The main growth driver came from the Brazilian market with an impressive increase of 71% YoY, while the US and EU markets recorded growth of 7% and 3% respectively. In contrast, the Chinese market fell 10% YoY. In terms of selling prices, the main markets all recorded growth, with the US (+5%), China (+3%), Brazil (+7%) and the EU (+1%).
• The export value of pangasius in 2H2025 is expected to growth 15% YoY as volume growth of 10%, with selling prices maintaining an upward trend of about 5% YoY due to the short-term pressure from tariffs. Factors supporting output growth include:
(1) Regaining tilapia market share as (1) the US will reduce tilapia imports after the US reciprocal tariffs on China take effect from August 12th, 2025 and (2) Vietnam's price of pangasius after reciprocal tariffs is about 50-60% lower than Chinese tilapia.
(2) The trend of consumers in the US shifting from expensive salmon to affordable white fish products, in the context of a decline in the consumer confidence index.
(3) Strong growth from other markets such as Brazil and Mexico will support the entire industry.
• The gross margin of the pangasius industry in 2H2025 is expected to improve compared to 1H2025 as the expected growth of 5% in pangasius selling prices and the gradual decrease in pangasius raw material prices. In particular, ANV's gross margin is expected to outperform VHC’s, as ANV's increase in the proportion of exports to Brazil (high gross margin) and decrease in the proportion to China (low gross margin).