FMC - Hopes of Weathering the Storm
Q1-FY25: Exports to the US saw revenue growth but low profits• Q1 2025 revenue rose 36% YoY to VND 1,990 billion (USD 79 million), driven by a 43% in shrimp consumption to 6,119 tons. The growth was driven by the company’s focus on value-added products to the US, where the revenue contribution rose from 22% to 30%.
• NPAT-MI reached VND 29.6 billion (USD 1 million, - 40% YoY) due to selling expenses surging 194% to VND 88 billion (USD 3 million), driven by:
o FMC exports to the US instead of Japan (US shipments follow DDP Incoterms rather than CFR like Japan), leading to higher shipping costs.
o FMC also booked anti-dumping and countervailing duties, which were not incurred in the same period last year.
Q2 2025 Outlook: Shrimp consumption continues to support growth
• Q2 2025, we estimate shrimp consumption will reach 4,900 metric tons (+20% YoY) as shrimp output in the first two months of Q2 2025 grew by 31%.
• Shrimp selling prices in Q2 are expected to remain flat QoQ, with the USD/VND exchange rate projected to rise about 1% QoQ, based on a 4% QoQ increase in the average selling price during the first two months of Q2 2025. Agricultural prices are also seen flat QoQ, up 14% YoY.
• Q2 2025 revenue and NPAT-MI are projected to reach VND 1,608 billion (USD 64 million) and VND 71 billion (USD 3 million), up 20% and 7% YoY, respectively. For 2025, revenue is forecast to reach VND 8,058 billion (USD 320 million,+17% YoY) while NPAT-MI is expected to remain flat at VND 307 billion (USD 12 million).
Outlook and Recommendation
We expect NPAT-MI for 2025–2026 period to remain flat at VND 307 billion (USD 12 million), consistent with 2024 levels. This projection reflects the impact of tariff-related volatility and a strategic shift in market focus on the US and other emerging markets, which has driven up selling expenses. The estimated EPS for 2025 stands at VND 4,698.
In the short term, tariff-related risks may affect investor sentiment due to concerns about poor business performance. However, FMC’s strategy to expand into new markets and reduce reliance on the US would support long-term growth. Value-added products will strengthen its position and increase global market share.
Using the P/E valuation method, we set a short-term target price for FMC at VND 40,500/share, implying a 2025 forward P/E of 8.6x to reflect ongoing uncertainties related to tariff risks. The target price includes cash dividends imply the total expected return of 11% based on the closing price as of Jul 04, 2025. We assign an ACCUMULATE rating for FMC.
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