FMC - Q1-2024 profit is the highest profitable Q1 over the years
- Q1-2024: revenue reached VND 1,461 bn (or USD 58 mn) (+45% YoY) as a 49.5% increase in shrimp revenue with production up 26% YoY and shrimp selling price in VND increase 18.6% YoY. However, the raw shrimp prices increase in Q4-2023 make the gross margin decreased by 1.4 percentage points YoY. As a result, PAT only increased by 18% YoY, reaching VND 57.2 bn (or USD 2 mn).
- Q2-2024: we estimate revenue to reach VND 1,214 bn (or USD 48 mn) (+18% YoY) as a 10% YoY increase in shrimp export volume and a selling price in VND equivalent to Q1-2024 (+7% YoY). PAT is estimated to reach VND 88 bn (or USD 3.5 mn) (+16% YoY) as selling expenses increase.
- In 2024, we have raised our revenue forecast to VND 5,917 bn (or USD 236 mn) (+16% YoY), assuming shrimp export volume will increase by 10.8% YoY and the selling price in VND will increase by 5.5% YoY, while gross profit margin decreases from 11% to 10.1% as an expected 20% increase in self-cultivated shrimp production instead of 29% YoY. As a result, NPAT-MI is projected to decrease to VND 318 bn (or USD 12.7 mn) (+15% YoY). EPS for 2024 is estimated at VND 4,857 (+15% YoY).
- We slightly reduced the target price from VND 52,600 per share to VND 52,300 per share due to the adjusted decrease in gross margin for 2024. Combined with the expected cash dividend of VND 2,000, the expected profit for the next 12 months is 12% compared to the closing price of VND 48,550 per share on April 26, 2024. We recommend ACCUMULATE this stock
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