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FMC – Update of Q2/2025 investor meeting - Bright future expectations as tariff risks diminish

• Revenue and NPAT-MI in Q2/2025 both exceeded our forecast due to a strong growth in shrimp output and selling price (in VND). Revenue recorded an increase of 51% YoY thanks to the growth of export volume from the US market. However, NPAT-MI increased by 21% YoY due to a decrease in net profit margin YoY, as the net margin in the US market was lower than in other markets due to additional tax expenses in this market.
• 2025 PBT’s is expected to be equivalent to the same period last year, with growth in 2H2025 from the Japanese and EU markets compensating for the decline in the US market. Net profit margin in 2H2025 is expected to be difficult to improve significantly, due to the increase in selling prices but accompanied by an increase in the cost of shrimp raw materials.
• In the medium term, the business is expected to maintain its growth momentum by improving the autonomy rate and maintaining a high success rate in shrimp farming as well as maintaining competitive advantages in key markets as following:
o In the US market, becoming a mandatory defendant for 2024 will give businesses the chance to enjoy anti-dumping duties (AD) at 0% for the 2025 period. In addition, there is still room for export as fried shrimp products and fresh shrimp flour products that are not subject to AD tax and fried shrimp products, which face little competition from other countries.
o In the Japanese market, the long-standing brand reputation and consistent products, in line with consumer tastes, continuing to strengthen the company's position.
• With positive business results in Q2/2025, we maintain our Accumulate recommendation on FMC stock with a target price of VND42,000/share. The current target price has reflected the short-term uncertainties associated with tariffs in the US market this year. However, the target price has not taken into account positive factors such as businesses expecting Vietnam's reciprocal tariff to be about 11% and anti-dumping duties to decrease to 0% this year.