GEG – 2024F earnings growth driven by wind energy and lower interest expenses
• GEG achieved solid results in H1 2024, with revenue of VND 1,227bn (USD 49mn +19% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 11bn (USD 0.4mn; +52% YoY), mainly driven by wind energy segment.• We estimate that GEG's 2024F revenue of VND 2,321bn (USD 92mn; +7% YoY) and NPAT of VND 192bn (USD 8mn; +40% YoY), due to the full-year contribution of the Tan Phu Dong 1 wind energy project and the falling financial expenses. Accordingly, we estimate forward 2024F EPS of 563 VND.
• For 2025, GEG's growth potential will be (1) its ability to negotiate electricity tariff negotiations with EPTC for the Tan Phu Dong 1 project and (2) debt restructuring through the retirement of its high-yield old outstanding loans.
• GEG's share price is trading at 11,550 VND/share (P/B 0.9x) - a fairly high discount compared to its book, which reflects current gloomy outlook for GEG-owned renewable energy projects. We will update GEG's valuation in the future reports.
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