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GMD - Fire tests gold, hardships test

Using the Sum of the parts (SoTP) method, we set a target price of VND 71,000 per share for GMD, with an expected cash dividend of VND 2,000 per share. This implies a total expected return of 26%, based on the closing price as of July 24, 2025. We recommend a BUY on GMD.
• Double-digit throughput growth at GMD’s two core ports, driven by infrastructure expansion and rising trade flows in Vietnam’s deepening supply chain.
o Nam Dinh Vu (NDV): Container volume is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 10%, with further upside from Phase 3, though the ramp-up may be slower due to rising competition in Hai Phong.
o Gemalink (GML): Output is expected to rise 2% YoY in 2025 from a high base, driven by pre-tariff import demand and market diversification. Phases 2A and 2B (2027 & 2030) will expand capacity, supporting an estimated CAGR of 11% during 2025–2029.
• GMD's revenue is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 9% in the period 2025 – 2029 thanks to the container handling segment.
o Container handling: Forecast to grow at a CAGR of 11%, driven by volume growth in Hai Phong and the South, along with rising service rates tied to the USD/VND exchange rate.
o Logistics: Revenue is expected to reach VND 750 billion (+18% YoY) in 2025 from active vessel chartering, then remain flat through 2029 with stable ship leasing at USD 9,000/day.
• Net profit margin is expected to remain stable at 30% in 2025 – 2029, despite a slight drop in gross margin caused by increased depreciation from NDV Phase 3. This will be offset by contributions from SCS and GML.
For 2025, revenue is forecast to reach VND 5,075 billion (+5% YoY) and NPATMI to reach VND 1,595 billion (+10% YoY). The corresponding EPS is estimated at VND 3,709. After adjusting for one-off items in 2024 (including port liquidation profits/costs, a VND 412 billion provision for the rubber project, and VND 147 billion in compensation to a shipping line post-Typhoon Yagi), NPATMI is projected to grow by 5% YoY.
Risks to recommendations (see pages 45)
• Downside risk: Prolonged US–China trade tensions could negatively impact global cargo volumes, further delays in GML Phase 2 implementation, and regulatory restrictions may prevent SCS from operating at Long Thanh International Airport.
• Upside risk: Government approval of higher container handling tariffs at deep-water ports, and establishment of free trade zones in Hai Phong and Cai Mep–Thi Vai may support throughput growth.