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HDB – 2025F PBT forecast to grow 24% YoY driven by solid expansion in non-interest income

• Cumulative 9M consolidated PBT reached VND 14.8 trillion (+17% YoY), completing 70% of the full-year plan. In particular, consolidated PBT in Q3/25 exceeded VND 4.7 trillion (+0% QoQ, +5% YoY). Q3/25 profit showed positive highlights thanks to reductions in operating expenses (-11% QoQ) and provisioning expenses (-45% QoQ); however, net interest income declined significantly (-21% QoQ) due to (1) weak credit growth at the parent bank (-3.6% QoQ) and a narrowing NIM (-140 bps QoQ).
• We forecast HDB’s 2025F PBT to reach VND 20.8 trillion, up 24% YoY. Profit growth is driven by (1) credit growth of 24.9% (fulfilling the annual plan), (2) NIM declining by 40 bps YoY to 4.8%, (3) strong growth in non-interest income supported by service income (+206% YoY), gains from securities trading (+1,076% YoY), and FX trading gains (+49% YoY), and (4) operating expenses being streamlined (-6% YoY). However, a sharp increase in net newly formed NPLs during the year leads to provisioning expenses rising by 82% YoY.
• Cumulatively over 9 months, Net interest income / Total operating income / Provisioning expenses / PBT have achieved 74% / 73% / 80% / 71% of our full-year forecasts, respectively. We set a target price for HDB shares at VND 36,600/share (2026F P/B of 1.3x), equivalent to a total return of 22% based on the closing price on 15/12/2025.