Impact of the ENSO Cycle on Vietnam’s Power System Operations in 2026
• The ENSO cycle is a natural climatic phenomenon lasting 2–7 years, comprising three main phases: El Niño (warming), La Niña (cooling), and Neutral.• During the El Niño phase, Vietnam typically experiences hotter and drier conditions, with reduced rainfall and fewer storms. In contrast, the La Niña phase usually brings higher rainfall, accompanied by storms and flooding.
• According to the latest forecast, in 1H2026, the ENSO cycle is likely in a Neutral phase. Under this scenario, hydropower generation efficiency may decline, while thermal power plants (gas and coal) are expected to be dispatched at higher levels to maintain a stable electricity supply.
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