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Investment outlook 2026: 11.2 km/s

Last year, we chose the message “Dare to Depart” to capture a mindset of decisive reinvention: accepting a “build as you go, adjust as you learn” approach to move beyond a comfortable growth path, at a time when external headwinds were intensifying—from tariff policy to geopolitical volatility. In many ways, 2025 validated that message. The tariff shock in April and the tremors in the global economic order confronted Vietnam with a more difficult balancing act: growth, stability and confidence. Even so, policy responses tilted toward adaptation, while the reform agenda continued to broaden—gradually strengthening the institutional framework and laying the groundwork for personnel consolidation ahead of a new political term. The transition came with trade-offs, most notably in exchange-rate and interest-rate volatility, as authorities sought to keep the economic engine turning through a period of handover.
For 2026, we titled this report “11.2 km/s”—escape velocity, the minimum speed required for an object to break free from gravitational pull and enter deep space without being drawn back. The metaphor points to an inflection: as external drag shows signs of easing and domestic fundamentals provide sufficient thrust, Vietnam has a window to press the accelerator and shift onto a new growth trajectory. In capital markets, the narrative is also evolving—from “expensive by index” to “attractive in breadth”: earnings reassert themselves as the primary driver, while re-rating becomes increasingly selective.
The report is structured in three layers to support investment decision-making in a coherent flow: (1) the 2026 macro outlook—our base case, key variables and the conditions required to accelerate; (2) the equity-market outlook—EPS drivers, valuation, liquidity, macro/geopolitical risks and the indicators to watch; and (3) 2026 strategy and investment ideas—translating the macro into themes, sectors and stocks, with an emphasis on “nation-building” capital flows, the inputs powering the next growth engine, and a consumer cycle that is gradually warming—supported by a risk-management framework and disciplined portfolio rebalancing principles.
We expect this report to help investors read the cycle correctly, pick the right breadth, and position portfolios in line with risk appetite. We will remain engaged throughout 2026 with scenario updates, tactical calls, a more concrete recommended portfolio and ongoing dialogue—so investors can seize opportunities as “11.2 km/s” becomes the velocity of a new cycle.