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Investment Strategy Report – July 2022: SHORT-TERM OPPORTUNITIES ARISE AMID EARNINGS SEASON

“At the moment, the global macro has shown some initial signs of hope for the oil price, which has fallen more than 10% from its peak. This was notably true of the price decline that followed the OPEC+ meeting where it was decided to boost output from July 22 to August 22. Furthermore, data on import-export, logistics, PMI, and ISM indicate that the Chinese economy is beginning to show signs of recovery as of June 22. However, it is still too early to have a positive outlook on these two variables. Additionally, we think that the US economic statistics and the interest rate increase that will be revealed at the following July Fed meeting will have a big impact on the global market and Vietnam.

Domestic regulators have taken action to assist the control of inflation, sustain lending rates on market 1 and operating interest rates, and stabilize exchange rates. Therefore, we think that these macro variables have not altered considerably in the near term (as of July 22).

The draft transaction T+2 exemplifies the governing body's efforts to foster the market's long-term expansion and development. In actuality, investors will gain more from the reduction in transaction times and margin expenses. The impact of this draft, however, is impossible to judge in the short run, particularly given that the market has recently had a significant fall and that the psyche of individual investors is still very anxious at the moment.

According to Rong Viet's analysis, all sectors' business outcomes in Q2-Q3/22 will focus a lot from neutral to positive. However, we also believe that the stock price has mostly reflected the positive expectations from the market. Particularly, the banking sector is expected to create green color for the market from the prospect of positive business results in Q2-Q3 while the price having been heavily discounted since the year's beginning.

In July, we expect VN-Index to fluctuate in the range of 1,180 – 1,250 points. In the negative scenario, when oil prices rebound strongly and US economic growth is confirmed to enter a "technical recession", the VN-INDEX may perform worse than we expected. Highly defensive investment strategy is still recommended for July. Investors need to maintain good purchasing power to be able to seize opportunities in strong fluctuations of the market.”