Investment Strategy Report - SeptemberÂÂÂÂÂÂ 2017: The Confrontation between Chance and Risk
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The solid growth of the macro indicators is still the key factor that leads to positive market sentiment. Moreover, in the short-term, low inflation rate will help SBV to actively control the FX variation as well as allow credit growth to 21–22% based on the Government’s direction. Besides, SBV’s Draft on Circular 36 amendment also proposes to keep the ratio of short-term capital to finance mid- and long-term loans at 45% in 2018 and reduce to 40% from 2019 (Circular 06: 40% from 2019). If the proposal is approved, credit institutes may have less pressure on raising mid- and long-term deposits. Thanks to those solutions, interest rate could be kept at the current low rate for the remaining months of 2017. Hence, the link among investment channels may cause cash flow to stay within the stock market. The average liquidity will be above the average of VND3,200 billion–VND3,300 billion in the last months of 2017.
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