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MACRO OUTLOOK Q4 2025: ON TRACK WITH GROWTH TARGETS

Economic growth in Q3 remained broadly on target despite the implementation of new tariffs from August 1, 2025. This was supported by resilient growth in the manufacturing and export sectors (led by FDI enterprises), stable private investment and consumption, and continued contributions from public investment. A notable feature of Q3 growth was the recovery of the mining sector and the broader contribution of other industries to overall expansion.
The divergence in growth between the FDI and domestic sectors suggests that U.S. tariffs may have had a positive impact on FDI-related exports, as demand from the U.S. market remained solid and trade diversion to avoid China’s higher tariffs continued in the absence of new U.S. measures on transshipment identification.
Public investment continued to be the key growth driver, while private investment remained below the Government’s expectations. However, achieving the 100% disbursement target assigned by the Prime Minister in Q4 will be challenging, as new difficulties emerged in Q3, including local government restructuring at two administrative levels and natural disasters disrupting project implementation.
The continued inflow and disbursement of FDI amid trade tensions is a remarkable point. As noted, U.S. tariff policies have benefited Vietnam’s FDI-related exports; however, there are clear risks should U.S. demand weaken or should Washington tighten its scrutiny over transshipped goods. Consequently, FDI inflows in the manufacturing sector have remained stable rather than accelerating.
Credit expanded rapidly in tandem with GDP growth, though the acceleration was uneven across industries. At the same time, the sharp rise in asset markets (gold, real estate, and equities) has become a focal point in the economic landscape. Fortunately, inflation and exchange rates remain under control, thanks to favorable external factors (a supply-driven inflation structure, a weaker U.S. dollar, etc.). In addition, certain government interventions have helped ease short-term exchange rate pressures.
The Government continues to pursue ambitious growth targets for the remaining months of 2025 and for 2026. We believe the 8.0% growth target for 2025 is achievable based on the results of the first nine months. However, to reach the 10% growth goal in the following year, the economy will require deep structural reforms.