Report

Macroeconomics Report – November 2022: A WEAK START TO 4Q22

  • Industrial production growth in October 2022 is a less positive indicator for growth prospects in Q4/2022.
  • The service sector's picture is generally better than the manufacturing sector's, but the recovery has slowed.
  • With a less favorable picture of manufacturing and service sectors in the first month of the fourth quarter of 2022, GDP this quarter is estimated to increase by 6.0%-6.1%, corresponding to the GDP forecast for the whole year of 2022. 8.0-8.1%.
  • The early redemption partly helps reduce the corporate bond maturity scale. However, the time pressure and the maturity scale of corporate bonds are still quite significant.
  • VTP-SCB shock may lead to financial contagion risk. However, the level of risk will depend on 1) the size of SCB's liquidity risk and 2) the network structure of VTP-SCB in the banking system.
  • We think the SBV can increase the operating rates by at least 50-100 basis points in Q4/2022-Q1/2023.
Provider
Viet Dragon Securities
Viet Dragon Securities

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Analysts
My Tran

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